Updated February 16, 2026
The Sun Belt showdown between the Marshall Thundering Herd and the South Alabama Jaguars on Monday features two teams in the top four in the Sun Belt standings. Marshall enters as the home favorite in Huntington after splitting its last several games, while South Alabama comes in riding a three-game winning streak and at the top of the Sun Belt. Before this matchup gets started, you can find my Marshall vs South Alabama prediction below.
Pick: Marshall -3.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Marshall Thundering Herd
South Alabama Jaguars
Stat | Marshall | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 80.2 | 74.3 |
Points allowed per game | 76.0 | 68.8 |
Team Field Goal % | 46.1% | 46.2% |
Team Free Throw % | 72.8% | 66.1% |
Rebounds Per Game | 37.9 | 35.8 |
Assists Per Game | 16.7 | 11.5 |
Marshall’s offense has generated more points than South Alabama’s on average, and that edge is key against a first-place opponent. While the Thundering Herd allows more points defensively, the Jaguars rank well in defensive efficiency, particularly in limiting opponent shooting percentage. South Alabama’s strengths lie in defensive stops and limiting mistakes, whereas Marshall’s assist production gives them more ways to create open looks.
Recent meetings between these teams have favored South Alabama, who have won both of the games played by these teams all-time. South Alabama is 13-11 against the spread going into this contest, while Marshall is 8-16-1 against the spread this year. The over is 13-11 in South Alabama games this season, while Marshall is 14-10-1 to the over for the season.
Score Projection: Marshall 76 – South Alabama 72 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Marshall 63%, South Alabama 37% ATS PRO
This Sun Belt contest is a clash of styles between Marshall’s offensive production and South Alabama’s defensive focus. Playing at home gives the Herd a slight edge, especially with their assist rate and scoring depth. South Alabama’s defense should keep this competitive throughout, but Marshall’s efficiency at the foul line and ability to create open shots provide the difference. I'm going to lay the points with Marshall on Monday night.
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