Two fast-paced ACC offenses collide on Saturday as SMU visits Louisville in a game with real implications for seeding down the stretch in the ACC this season. SMU enters at 15-5 after defeating Florida State 83-80 and winning at Wake Forest 91-79 earlier in the week. Louisville sits 14-6 after an 85-71 win over Virginia Tech and a rough night at Duke. Here, the Cardinals return home where they’ve been far more consistent. Before this game begins in the Bluegrass State, you can find my SMU vs Louisville prediction below.
Our SMU vs Louisville Pick
Pick: SMU +9.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: SMU Mustangs @ Louisville Cardinals
- Date & Time: Saturday, January 31, 2:00 PM ET
- Venue: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, Kentucky
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- Form update: SMU has won two straight games, including an 83-80 win over Florida State and a 91-79 win at Wake Forest. Louisville split the last week of games, beating Virginia Tech 85-71 before falling at Duke by a score of 83-52. These teams are separated by just a half-game in the ACC standings and a win will be huge for the postseason prospects of whoever can earn it.
- Stars to watch: SMU guard Boopie Miller leads the Mustangs at 19.4 PPG and 6.7 APG. Louisville’s Ryan Conwell sits at 19.4 PPG with efficient shooting, while freshman Mikel Brown Jr. recently returned from a back issue and dropped 20 in the win over the Hokies.
- Both of these teams are averaging over 85 points per game so far this season. We could see a high-scoring game, with oddsmakers setting the total for this matchup at a healthy 161.5 points. The team that can do a better job of getting stops on defense will have a huge upper hand in this contest from KFC Yum! Center.
- Louisville has a slight advantage on defense going into this contest, giving up 70.3 points per game, while SMU is allowing 77 points per game. The Cardinals are better on the defensive end of the floor, but they can't rest on their old stats here and need to earn every stop against the potent offense of SMU.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Louisville is 3-0 all-time against SMU and two of those three wins for Louisville came by double-digits.
- SMU comes into this game with a 9-10-1 record against the spread this season.
- Louisville is 11-9 against the spread going into Saturday afternoon.
- The Mustangs have gone over the total in 11 of their first 20 games.
- The under is 12-8 in Louisville's games this year.
SMU vs Louisville Model Projection
Score Projection: SMU 78 – Louisville 82
Win Probability: SMU 45%, Louisville 55%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be one of the more exciting games of the Saturday slate in men's college basketball. Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard and I'm expecting this contest to go down to the wire in the ACC. I'll take the points with SMU in a game that could go either way with so much offensive firepower on both sides.
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