Updated March 9, 2026
The MAAC championship game brings together two programs that have steadily climbed through the conference standings this season. Siena enters Tuesday night riding a wave of confidence after a strong conference tournament run, while Merrimack arrives as the league’s top seed and one of the most consistent teams in the conference. With both teams playing their best basketball in early March, this Siena vs Merrimack game carries high stakes, including the conference’s automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament.
Pick: Siena +3.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Siena arrives in the championship game after winning 4 of its last 5 contests, including a decisive semifinal victory over Fairfield that highlighted the scoring ability of its backcourt. The Saints have played well down the stretch and have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Their defense has also tightened recently, with several low-scoring games contributing to a streak of unders.
Merrimack has been the most consistent team in the MAAC this season. The Warriors hold a 23-10 overall record and dominated conference play with a 17-3 mark. They have won 11 of their last 12 games and have already defeated Siena this season in a competitive 79-72 contest. Merrimack’s defensive style, including its zone schemes and pressure on the perimeter, has caused problems for many opponents throughout the season. But they nearly stumbled in the semifinals, escaping with a one-point win over Marist.
Of course, the coaching situation for the Saints is a storyline going into this game. Gerry McNamara was a legend as a player at Syracuse University and taking Siena to the NCAA Tournament in just his second season there would be an impressive feat given how bad they were just a couple of seasons ago.
Merrimack Warriors
Siena Saints
Stat | Siena | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 70.7 | 69.0 |
Points allowed per game | 66.0 | 66.5 |
Team Field Goal % | 46% | 42% |
Rebounds Per Game | 33.9 | 28.8 |
Assists Per Game | 13.4 | 12.5 |
Score Projection: Siena 70 – Merrimack 68 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Siena 50%, Merrimack 50% ATS PRO
This MAAC championship contest should be tight from start to finish. Siena enters with confidence after several impressive tournament wins, and its backcourt scoring gives the Saints a clear path to victory. Merrimack, however, has been the more consistent team throughout the season and already owns a victory in this series. This game is about a toss-up as far as I'm concerned and I'll take Siena, as I just don't think there's much of anything to separate these teams in this spot.
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