The opening round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament features a matchup between No. 1 seed Duke and No. 16 seed Siena on Thursday. Duke enters the tournament with national title expectations after winning the ACC Tournament and finishing the regular season with one of the best records in the country. Siena arrives as the MAAC champion after a strong run through its conference tournament, including a 64-54 victory over top-seeded Merrimack to secure the automatic bid. Here, I break down this contest and you will find my Siena vs Duke prediction below.
Siena vs Duke Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Siena Saints vs Duke Blue Devils
- Date & Time: Thursday, March 19, 2026
- Venue: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, South Carolina
Key Storylines
Duke enters the tournament as the overall No. 1 seed after a dominant season that included a 32-2 record and an ACC Tournament championship. The Blue Devils defeated Virginia in the conference title game and carry one of the strongest résumés in the country with multiple victories over ranked opponents.
Siena claimed its NCAA Tournament spot by winning the MAAC Tournament and arrives with confidence after a strong late-season run. The Saints have leaned on defense and disciplined offense throughout the year, but they now face a dramatic step up in competition against one of the deepest rosters in college basketball in a huge test for Siena coach Gerry McNamara and his team.
Key Players
Duke Blue Devils
- Cameron Boozer – The freshman forward leads Duke with 22.6 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game while shooting more than 58% from the field. He also contributes defensively and has been named ACC Player of the Year.
- Isaiah Evans – A dynamic scoring guard who averages 14.6 points per game while shooting over 36% from three-point range. His perimeter shooting spreads the floor for Duke’s offense.
- Patrick Ngongba II – The Blue Devils’ interior presence averages 10.7 points and 6.0 rebounds while blocking more than one shot per game. His rim protection could create problems for Siena inside.
Siena Saints
- Gavin Doty – The versatile forward averages 17.9 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. He is one of Siena’s most reliable offensive options and will be asked to battle Duke’s size.
- Justice Shoats – Shoats averages 4.4 assists per game and his ability to move the ball effectively will be important against the best defensive opponent that the Saints have played this season.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Siena | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 70.5 | 82.3 |
| Team Field Goal % | 46% | 49% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 34.4 | 40.3 |
| Assists Per Game | 13.4 | 16.9 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Duke is 19-15 against the spread this season.
- Siena went 20-14 against the spread for the season.
- The under is 22-12 in Duke’s games this year.
- Siena has stayed under the total in 23 of their 34 games.
Siena vs Duke Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Siena 61 – Duke 87 ATS PRO
- Pick: Siena +27.5 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: Siena 8%, Duke 92% ATS PRO
Duke’s been one of the most efficient offensive teams in college basketball and they should roll over Siena in this game. But I am going to take the points with the Siena Saints in this matchup, as this is a huge number to lay, even with an exceptional Duke team as the favorite. Expect Duke to win by a wide margin, but for Siena to cover the number when all is said and done in this first-round matchup.
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