Updated March 19, 2026
The opening round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament features a matchup between No. 1 seed Duke and No. 16 seed Siena on Thursday. Duke enters the tournament with national title expectations after winning the ACC Tournament and finishing the regular season with one of the best records in the country. Siena arrives as the MAAC champion after a strong run through its conference tournament, including a 64-54 victory over top-seeded Merrimack to secure the automatic bid. Here, I break down this contest and you will find my Siena vs Duke prediction below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRaplzbGRZE
Duke enters the tournament as the overall No. 1 seed after a dominant season that included a 32-2 record and an ACC Tournament championship. The Blue Devils defeated Virginia in the conference title game and carry one of the strongest résumés in the country with multiple victories over ranked opponents.
Siena claimed its NCAA Tournament spot by winning the MAAC Tournament and arrives with confidence after a strong late-season run. The Saints have leaned on defense and disciplined offense throughout the year, but they now face a dramatic step up in competition against one of the deepest rosters in college basketball in a huge test for Siena coach Gerry McNamara and his team.
Stat | Siena | Duke |
|---|---|---|
Points Per Game | 70.5 | 82.3 |
Team Field Goal % | 46% | 49% |
Rebounds Per Game | 34.4 | 40.3 |
Assists Per Game | 13.4 | 16.9 |
Duke's been one of the most efficient offensive teams in college basketball and they should roll over Siena in this game. But I am going to take the points with the Siena Saints in this matchup, as this is a huge number to lay, even with an exceptional Duke team as the favorite. Expect Duke to win by a wide margin, but for Siena to cover the number when all is said and done in this first-round matchup.
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