Updated March 18, 2026
The opening round of the NCAA Tournament includes a matchup between the Idaho Vandals and Houston Cougars. The Cougars enter the tournament as one of the country’s most complete teams after another excellent season in the Big 12. Idaho, meanwhile, earned its tournament bid by winning the Big Sky tournament and now faces the tall task of competing with one of college basketball’s most disciplined defensive programs. Here, I've got you covered with my Idaho vs Houston prediction before the Madness begins on Thursday.
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Houston enters the tournament with one of the best records in the nation after a strong run through the Big 12 schedule. The Cougars reached the Big 12 championship game and have established themselves as one of the toughest defensive teams in college basketball. Their ability to force difficult shots and control the glass has been the foundation of the program under coach Kelvin Sampson.
Idaho arrives as the Big Sky champion and brings a balanced offense capable of scoring from multiple spots on the floor. The Vandals average close to 79 points per game and have several double-digit scorers. However, stepping up in class against a high-level defense like Houston presents a major test.
Houston
Idaho
Category | Idaho | Houston |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 78.7 | 77.1 |
Team Field Goal % | 45% | 45% |
Rebounds per game | 37.4 | 36.6 |
Assists per game | 12.7 | 14.7 |
ATS records for this season
Over/Under records for this season
Houston’s defense tends to overwhelm opponents from smaller conferences, and this matchup sets up in a similar way. The Cougars ability to guard, contest shots aggressively, and rarely allow easy baskets in the paint should help them create some major separation here. Idaho’s offense has been productive against Big Sky competition, but the step up in athleticism and defensive discipline is massive. I'm going to lay the points with the Houston Cougars in this matchup on Thursday.
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