The Horizon League men’s basketball conference tournament continues on Tuesday with an intriguing matchup, as the Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons visit the Green Bay Phoenix in a first‑round game that will end one team’s season. Both squads enter this Purdue Fort Wayne vs Green Bay contest with identical overall records at 17‑14 and similar conference marks, making this one of the toss‑up games of the Tuesday slate at Kress Center in Green Bay.
Our Purdue Fort Wayne vs Green Bay Pick
Pick: Purdue Fort Wayne +6.5
Confidence: 2 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons @ Green Bay Phoenix
- Date & Time: Tuesday, March 3, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Kress Center, Green Bay, WI
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- Green Bay had an edge in recent play after handling Purdue Fort Wayne 76‑59 in their February meeting, led by a 34‑point explosion from Justin Allen.
- Both teams finished the regular season 17‑14 overall and will be battling for survival in the single‑elimination setting of the Horizon League tournament.
- Green Bay went 9-4 at home this season, while Purdue Fort Wayne was 6-10 on the road, giving Green Bay an advantage heading into this matchup, at least in theory.
Key Players
Green Bay Phoenix
- Justin Allen: The Phoenix’s leading scorer from the February 12 matchup poured in 34 points to propel Green Bay by Purdue Fort Wayne. His ability to score in bunches will be vital given the close nature of this game.
- Marcus Hall: A consistent contributor, Hall added 15 points and was a steady presence on the boards in his last outing against the Mastodons.
- C.J. O’Hara: Shooting efficiently from the free‑throw line and around the basket, O’Hara’s offensive efficiency offers balance to Green Bay’s attack. He leads the Phoenix with 14.2 points per game.
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
- Corey Hadnot II: Hadnot II leads the Mastodons in scoring at just over 20 points per game and offers size and creation on offense. His performance is essential if Purdue Fort Wayne wants to keep this game close and advance.
- Darius Duffy: The team’s top rebounder provides second‑chance opportunities at times, though no Mastodons player averages five rebounds per game for the season.
- Mikale Stevenson: As the primary facilitator, Stevenson’s playmaking will be key to generating good shot opportunities for his teammates.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Purdue Fort Wayne | Green Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 78.8 | 75.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 77.5 | 74.8 |
| Team Field Goal % | 47% | 49% |
| Rebounds per game | 30.2 | 31.5 |
| Assists per game | 13.9 | 13.7 |
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- This season’s regular-season meeting saw Green Bay top Purdue Fort Wayne 76‑59, showcasing the Phoenix’s capability to dominate when their scorers find rhythm.
- Green Bay went 18-11 against the spread this season.
- Purdue Fort Wayne went 12-16 against the spread this year.
Purdue Fort Wayne vs Green Bay Model Projection
Score Projection: Purdue Fort Wayne 74 – Green Bay 78
Win Probability: Purdue Fort Wayne 44%, Green Bay 56%
Final Thoughts
Green Bay should ultimately win this game on their home floor to advance to the next round of the Horizon League tournament. But I’m going to take the points with Purdue Fort Wayne, as the pressure of this moment should prevent either team from building leads too big against each other.
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