The 2026 Summit League men’s basketball tournament quarterfinal on Thursday, March 5 features a matchup that pits the top seed against a team that has endured a difficult season but earned its ticket through the play‑in round as the No. 8 seed. The North Dakota State Bison (24‑7, 14‑2 Summit League) will take on the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (10‑22, 4‑12 SL) after the Golden Eagles secured a win over Kansas City in the Wednesday play‑in. North Dakota State, having finished first in league play, enters this contest as the clear favorite but must guard against complacency against a foe that has shown competitive fire. Here, I break down this conference tournament matchup and make my Oral Roberts vs North Dakota State prediction.
Our Oral Roberts vs North Dakota State Pick
Pick: North Dakota State Bison -8.5
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles @ North Dakota State Bison
- Date & Time: Thursday, March 5, 2026, 6:00 PM CT
- Venue: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota
- Broadcast: Summit League Network
Key Storylines
- North Dakota State captured the Summit League regular season title with a 14‑2 league record, showcasing consistency on both ends of the court and earning the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament. Their depth and scoring efficiency have been key to success.
- Oral Roberts enters the quarterfinal after winning its play‑in game, but the Golden Eagles endured a challenging 2025‑26 campaign and finished 9‑22 in the regular season.
- The two teams have already met twice during the regular season, with North Dakota State winning both. A January double‑overtime game was competitive, but a later rematch saw NDSU dominate, pointing to adjustments made by the Bison throughout the season.
Key Players
North Dakota State Bison
- Tay Smith: A dynamic scorer who erupted for 24 points in the January 24 win over Oral Roberts, demonstrating his ability to lead the offense and hit efficiently from deep.
- Damari Wheeler‑Thomas: A consistent contributor throughout the season, his scoring and playmaking help keep the offense balanced and difficult to defend.
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
- Ty Harper: Leading the Golden Eagles in scoring this season at 18 points per game, Harper provides the offensive spark Oral Roberts needs to stay competitive.
- Ofri Naveh: Close behind in scoring with double figures on average, Naveh’s scoring and rebounding add key production for ORU.
- Connor Dow: A steady presence, Dow’s ability to contribute across points, assists, and leadership makes him important, particularly in tournament pressure situations.
Stat Comparison
| Statistic | North Dakota State | Oral Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 81.5 | 73.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 70.6 | 77.6 |
| Team Field Goal % | 47% | 43% |
| Rebounds per game | 36.0 | 34.8 |
| Assists per game | 15.7 | 11.8 |
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- This season, North Dakota State won both regular-season meetings, including a close double‑overtime victory and a lopsided win on the road.
- North Dakota State is 18-11 against the spread for the season.
- Oral Roberts is 13-16 against the spread entering this matchup on Thursday night.
Oral Roberts vs North Dakota State Model Projection
Score Projection: North Dakota State 83 – Oral Roberts 64
Win Probability: North Dakota State 78%, Oral Roberts 22%
Final Thoughts
North Dakota State enters this tournament quarterfinal with the momentum of a strong regular season and clear matchup advantages in scoring, defense, and depth. Oral Roberts showed grit in the play‑in to reach this round, but it consistently struggled against higher‑caliber opponents this season. I expect the Bison to control tempo and utilize their balanced attack to secure a win and advance, covering the spread as a favorite.
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