Updated December 22, 2025
On Monday night, the Northern Iowa Panthers travel to California to take on the Saint Mary’s Gaels in a non-conference college basketball matchup that pits two of the stronger mid-major teams in the nation against one another. Saint Mary’s enters this game as a significant favorite at home after a strong start to the 2025-26 season, while Northern Iowa has quietly built a solid 9-2 record highlighted by its stout defense. Before tip-off in Moraga, you can continue reading to find my Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary's prediction.
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Score Projection: Northern Iowa 60 – Saint Mary’s 70
Win Probability: Northern Iowa 27%, Saint Mary’s 73%
My best bet for this interesting non-conference matchup in college basketball is for the game to stay under 131.5 points. The Panthers will try to slow this game down as much as they possibly can and that should lead to an under, even if Saint Mary's offense has a good game by their standards. I'll take the Gaels to win by 10 points or so and for the under to cash in one of the final games of the night in college hoops.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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