Northern Iowa Panthers vs Saint Mary's Gaels Pick & Prediction - 12/22/2025

On Monday night, the Northern Iowa Panthers travel to California to take on the Saint Mary’s Gaels in a non-conference college basketball matchup that pits two of the stronger mid-major teams in the nation against one another. Saint Mary’s enters this game as a significant favorite at home after a strong start to the 2025-26 season, while Northern Iowa has quietly built a solid 9-2 record highlighted by its stout defense. Before tip-off in Moraga, you can continue reading to find my Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary's prediction.

Our Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary’s Pick

• Pick: Under 131.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Northern Iowa Panthers @ Saint Mary’s Gaels
• Date & Time: Monday, December 22, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
• Venue: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, California
• Broadcast: ESPN+

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Key Storylines

• Saint Mary’s has been excellent at home this season, remaining unbeaten at University Credit Union Pavilion (7-0) and showcasing balanced scoring and efficient play on offense.
• Northern Iowa enters this game at 9-2 and is solid defensively, allowing just 57.6 points allowed per game. But they face a stiff challenge against Saint Mary’s offense.
• Saint Mary’s offensive leaders like Paulius Murauskas and Joshua Dent have paced the Gaels with strong scoring outputs, and their ability to stretch the floor could disrupt Northern Iowa’s defensive schemes.
• Northern Iowa’s Leon Bond III has been a consistent performer and is expected to be a key contributor again. But the Panthers may struggle to keep pace if Saint Mary’s can play its usual high level of defense.
• Northern Iowa could try to slow down the Gaels in this contest. According to KenPom, the Panthers play at one of the 10 slowest tempos in men's college basketball so far this season. They will try to protect their possessions and take their time to get what they want offensively.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• Saint Mary's holds a 2-1 lead in the three all-time games between these programs.
• Northern Iowa is 6-4 against the spread going into this matchup.
• Saint Mary's is 6-5 against the spread entering Monday night.
• The under has cashed in 8 of the 10 games Northern Iowa has played this year.
• The over is 7-4 in Saint Mary's games this season.

Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary’s Model Projection

Score Projection: Northern Iowa 60 – Saint Mary’s 70

Win Probability: Northern Iowa 27%, Saint Mary’s 73%

Final Thoughts

My best bet for this interesting non-conference matchup in college basketball is for the game to stay under 131.5 points. The Panthers will try to slow this game down as much as they possibly can and that should lead to an under, even if Saint Mary's offense has a good game by their standards. I'll take the Gaels to win by 10 points or so and for the under to cash in one of the final games of the night in college hoops.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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