Updated December 22, 2025
The Braggin’ Rights rivalry returns Monday night as the Missouri Tigers and the Illinois Fighting Illini face off in the game of the night in college basketball. Both programs come into this neutral site battle in St. Louis with winning records and will look for a big win with conference play fast approaching. Illinois is the consensus favorite going into this contest and Missouri will try to pull off the upset in their home state. Before tip-off from St. Louis, you will find my Missouri vs Illinois prediction right here.
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This matchup represents not just another nonconference game but a long-standing rivalry that dates back over nine decades, shifting the tone for both squads as they build toward league play. Illinois is coming off a loss at Nebraska, but head coach Brad Underwood has used a 9-day break to emphasize defensive discipline and sustaining focus over a full 40 minutes. Those are areas Illinois will need to improve against Missouri’s dynamic offense.
Missouri enters at 10-2 with a strong offensive track record, led by junior forward Mark Mitchell and scoring threats like Jacob Crews and Kassius Robertson. Their ability to execute in transition and finish at the rim has been a strength, but tougher defenses such as Illinois’ could limit those opportunities. Missouri has won two games in a row and has responded nicely from their losses to Notre Dame and Kansas to start the month of December.
Score Projection: Illinois 84 – Missouri 73
Win Probability: Illinois 68%, Missouri 32%
I'm going to lay the points with Illinois in this rivalry game from St. Louis. The Illini have the third-ranked offense in college basketball according to KenPom and they should take advantage of a Missouri defense that ranks outside of the KenPom top-100. The Fighting Illini should be able to win this game and create some separation against a porous Missouri defense, proving that they still belong in the top-25, regardless of their recent slip-ups.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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