The North Texas Mean Green and Saint Mary’s Gaels will do battle in college basketball on Friday night. Both of these teams are off to strong starts and will try to flex their muscles on defense against a quality opponent in this matchup. Here, I break down this game between teams from the American Athletic Conference and West Coast Conference. You can continue reading to get my North Texas vs Saint Mary's prediction.
Our North Texas vs Saint Mary’s Pick
- Pick: Under 130.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: North Texas Mean Green @ Saint Mary’s Gaels
- Date & Time: Friday, November 14, 2025, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, California
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- The Gaels are off to a flawless 3‑0 start this season, with commanding wins including a 90‑60 rout of Ohio. They are averaging 87 points per game in early action and have looked good offensively to go with their typically stingy defense.
- North Texas enters at 3‑1 and most recently suffered a 66‑64 road loss against Oregon State. They average 74.0 points per game while allowing 58.8 points per game. Their defense appears solid, but this could be their biggest challenge all season against a Gaels team that is incredible on the defensive end of the floor.
- The Gaels play at home here and they enter this game at 3-0 at University Credit Union Pavilion early in the season. North Texas is operating in a new era under first‑year head coach Daniyal Robinson and they dropped their first road game of the year to Oregon State.
- This game is expected to be a slugfest that is dominated by the defenses. Both of these teams rank in the top 50 in defensive rating according to KenPom. They also have adjusted tempos that put them in the bottom 15 in Division I. We should see good defense and not a lot of possessions.
Betting Trends
- Both of these teams are 3-0 against the spread going into this game.
- All three games this season for Saint Mary's have gone over their respective totals.
- The under has cashed in all three of North Texas' games thus far.
North Texas vs Saint Mary's Model Projection
Score Projection: North Texas 57 – Saint Mary’s 66
Win Probability: North Texas 10%, Saint Mary’s 90%
Final Thoughts
Saint Mary's should roll at home in this contest. But my best bet for this game is focused on the total rather than the point spread. I think that the under is the best play in this matchup. Both of these teams play some of the slowest basketball in Division I college hoops this year. That should continue and the quality of these defenses should help this matchup stay under a low total in California.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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