The rivalry between the University of North Carolina Tar Heels and the NC State Wolfpack takes center stage on Tuesday, as two Atlantic Coast Conference foes clash in Raleigh. North Carolina (20-5, 8-4 ACC) arrives enjoying one of its better seasons in recent years despite dealing with a significant injury to their leading scorer. Meanwhile, NC State (18-8, 9-4 ACC) has been trending upward offensively and will be the home favorite in this high-stakes conference contest. Here, I break down this game in the ACC and bring you my North Carolina vs NC State prediction.
Our North Carolina vs NC State Pick
Pick:
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: North Carolina Tar Heels @ NC State Wolfpack
- Date & Time: February 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: PNC Arena, Raleigh, North Carolina
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
North Carolina has enjoyed a strong season but recently lost star freshman Caleb Wilson to a broken hand, creating a sizeable void in both scoring and rebounding. Wilson has been the Tar Heels’ most productive player, averaging around 20 points and 10 rebounds per contest before the injury was confirmed earlier in the week. That absence forces other contributors like Jarin Stevenson, Seth Trimble, and Luka Bogavac to pick up additional offensive responsibility. Despite those offensive challenges, UNC showcased depth by cruising past Pittsburgh 79-65 without Wilson, indicating they can still be effective even without elite production from their top player.
On the NC State side, the Wolfpack continue to rank among the ACC’s more efficient offenses, averaging over 85 points per game and possessing length and shooting versatility. However, they have stumbled at critical moments recently, losing a tight game to Miami 77-76 due to late turnovers and missed free throws. NC State’s defense has been inconsistent, but at home, they have shown resilience and a scoring edge, particularly behind guards like Quadir Copeland and big contributions from forward Ven-Allen Lubin, who has been highly efficient in recent outings. With this being their first meeting this season, both teams are eager to assert dominance in this regional rivalry.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- North Carolina is 121-51 all-time against NC State.
- The Tar Heels have won two straight games over the Wolfpack.
- North Carolina is 14-11 against the spread going into this game.
- NC State is 14-11-1 against the spread entering Tuesday night.
- The under is 14-11 in North Carolina’s games this year.
- The over is 16-10 in NC State’s games this season.
North Carolina vs NC State Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
