The showdown between the Michigan State Spartans and North Carolina Tar Heels on Thanksgiving Day is one of the best games on the Thanksgiving sports calendar. Both teams carry undefeated records (6-0) into what promises to be a highly competitive affair in the Fort Myers Tip-Off. Only one of these teams will stay undefeated after Thanksgiving. Find out who I think that will be as I make my North Carolina vs Michigan State prediction for Thursday afternoon.
Our North Carolina vs Michigan State Pick
- Pick: Michigan State –2.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Michigan State Spartans vs North Carolina Tar Heels
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 27, 2025, 4:30 PM ET
- Venue: Suncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, Florida
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- Both programs enter at 6-0. Michigan State has won five of its games by at least 10 points. North Carolina’s wins have come against mainly mid-major teams, though they also beat Kansas early in the season. Both of these teams have looked very impressive and they will try to continue looking impressive with a win in this contest.
- Michigan State’s offense has been efficient beyond the arc. The Spartans average about 7.5 made 3-pointers per game this season, which nearly matches North Carolina’s 7.8 threes allowed per game. MSU’s perimeter shooting could exploit UNC’s weaknesses on the wings and North Carolina will ahve to key in on the perimeter defensively.
- North Carolina has frontcourt size and balanced scoring. Caleb Wilson is averaging a double-double for the Tar Heels and he has helped UNC average just over 45 rebounds per game as a team. The Tar Heels’ interior size could help them battle for second-chance points and have a superior rebounding margin.
- This is a neutral-site game, so home-court advantage will not be a factor in this matchup. Both teams are likely motivated to prove early that they belong among the top contenders for the national championship this season.
Betting Trends
- North Carolina is 4-2 against the spread going into this contest.
- Michigan State is 3-3 against the spread entering Thanksgiving Day.
- The under has gone 4-2 over the first six games for both of these teams.
Michigan State vs North Carolina Model Projection
Score Projection: Michigan State 76 – North Carolina 68
Win Probability: Michigan State 62%, North Carolina 38%
Final Thoughts
This matchup features two undefeated squads with elite rosters that have played exceptionally well early in the season. Michigan State’s ability to shoot from long range and hold their own in the paint gives them a slight edge as far as I’m concerned. I’ll take the Spartans to win and cover the spread in this matchup in what should be a highly competitive game from the state of Florida.
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