The opening round of the SEC Tournament brings together two teams that have experienced uneven seasons but still have a chance to extend their year. Mississippi State enters the tournament at 13-18 after dropping five straight games to close the regular season. Auburn arrives at 16-15 and also looking for a spark after a difficult stretch in conference play. This is a must-win game for both teams as it pertains to their postseason hopes. Here, I break it all down and make my Mississippi State vs Auburn prediction.
Our Mississippi State vs Auburn Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers
- Date & Time: Wednesday, March 11, 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Key Storylines
Mississippi State limps into the tournament after five consecutive defeats, including a 102-96 loss to Georgia in its most recent outing. Defense has been a major issue during that stretch, with the Bulldogs allowing at least 96 points in three of those games. Auburn has also struggled with consistency, though the Tigers closed the regular season with a competitive effort against Alabama after defeating LSU earlier in the week.
The earlier meeting between these teams this season provides an interesting reference point. Mississippi State shot well in that February game and controlled the pace to secure the six-point victory. Auburn will attempt to flip that script by pushing tempo and leaning on its backcourt scoring. The key question is whether Auburn’s offense can exploit Mississippi State’s defensive struggles while avoiding another high-scoring shootout.
Auburn comes into this game on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and a loss here would effectively end their NCAA Tournament hopes. Mississippi State needs to win this tournament to see March Madness, creating an environment where both teams are desperate to deliver.
Key Players
Auburn
- Tahaad Pettiford leads Auburn’s offense and has delivered several standout outings. He scored 27 points in a recent victory over LSU while also contributing six assists and four steals. His ability to create off the dribble gives the Tigers a reliable scoring option.
- Kevin Overton provides another scoring threat on the wing. He poured in 24 points against Alabama and added five rebounds in that game, showing he can produce even against top competition.
- Keyshawn Hall adds significantly to Auburn’s scoring rotation. He recorded 17 points during the LSU win and frequently contributes timely baskets that help stabilize the offense.
Mississippi State
- Josh Hubbard is the centerpiece of the Bulldogs’ offense. He erupted for 42 points in the loss to Georgia and regularly carries the scoring load. When Hubbard finds a rhythm from the perimeter, Mississippi State becomes much harder to defend.
- Quincy Ballard plays an important role in the paint, averaging close to seven rebounds per game while providing interior presence on both ends of the floor.
- Shawn Jones Jr contributes across several categories. He recorded three assists and three steals in the Georgia game and often handles key defensive assignments in the backcourt.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Mississippi State | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 78.2 | 83.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 81.9 | 80.2 |
| Team Field Goal % | 45% | 46% |
| Rebounds per game | 38.2 | 36.1 |
| Assists per game | 12.9 | 12.8 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meeting this season: Mississippi State defeated Auburn 91-85 on February 18
- Mississippi State ATS record this season: 10-21
- Auburn ATS record this season: 13-18
Mississippi State vs Auburn Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
This SEC Tournament opener features two teams eager to change the tone of their season. Mississippi State proved earlier that it can beat Auburn, yet its current form raises concerns after several defensive struggles. Auburn has also dealt with inconsistency and is desperate for a win to keep its tournament hopes alive. Here, I’ll lay the points with Auburn, as their offense should feast against a bad Bulldogs defense.
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