Updated March 10, 2026
The opening round of the SEC Tournament brings together two teams that have experienced uneven seasons but still have a chance to extend their year. Mississippi State enters the tournament at 13-18 after dropping five straight games to close the regular season. Auburn arrives at 16-15 and also looking for a spark after a difficult stretch in conference play. This is a must-win game for both teams as it pertains to their postseason hopes. Here, I break it all down and make my Mississippi State vs Auburn prediction.
Pick: Auburn -7.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Mississippi State limps into the tournament after five consecutive defeats, including a 102-96 loss to Georgia in its most recent outing. Defense has been a major issue during that stretch, with the Bulldogs allowing at least 96 points in three of those games. Auburn has also struggled with consistency, though the Tigers closed the regular season with a competitive effort against Alabama after defeating LSU earlier in the week.
The earlier meeting between these teams this season provides an interesting reference point. Mississippi State shot well in that February game and controlled the pace to secure the six-point victory. Auburn will attempt to flip that script by pushing tempo and leaning on its backcourt scoring. The key question is whether Auburn’s offense can exploit Mississippi State’s defensive struggles while avoiding another high-scoring shootout.
Auburn comes into this game on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and a loss here would effectively end their NCAA Tournament hopes. Mississippi State needs to win this tournament to see March Madness, creating an environment where both teams are desperate to deliver.
Auburn
Mississippi State
Stat | Mississippi State | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 78.2 | 83.5 |
Points allowed per game | 81.9 | 80.2 |
Team Field Goal % | 45% | 46% |
Rebounds per game | 38.2 | 36.1 |
Assists per game | 12.9 | 12.8 |
Score Projection: Mississippi State 78 – Auburn 86 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Mississippi State 38%, Auburn 62% ATS PRO
This SEC Tournament opener features two teams eager to change the tone of their season. Mississippi State proved earlier that it can beat Auburn, yet its current form raises concerns after several defensive struggles. Auburn has also dealt with inconsistency and is desperate for a win to keep its tournament hopes alive. Here, I'll lay the points with Auburn, as their offense should feast against a bad Bulldogs defense.
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