Updated March 10, 2026
The opening round of the SEC Tournament features a meeting between LSU and Kentucky on Wednesday afternoon in Nashville. Kentucky enters the postseason with a 19-12 record after an up-and-down regular season, while LSU arrives at 15-16 and hopes to extend its year with an upset. The Wildcats are listed as a clear favorite, and I analyze whether or not that status is justified below, as I make my LSU vs Kentucky prediction in the betting markets.
Pick: Kentucky -6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
This game is a part of the first round of the SEC Tournament, and both teams enter with different expectations. Kentucky finished the regular season with a 19-12 record and a 10-8 mark in conference play. LSU struggled through the SEC schedule and sits just under .500 overall and 3-15 in conference play. The Wildcats are looking to build momentum in March, while LSU needs a strong showing to keep its season alive.
Kentucky's fans tend to travel well for neutral-site matchups. That is expected to be the case again here, despite the fact that this hasn't been the best year in the recent history of Kentucky college basketball. It will be interesting to see if LSU brings much support, given how badly their season has gone.
Kentucky Wildcats
LSU Tigers
Stat | LSU | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 81.4 | 81.2 |
Points allowed per game | 78.2 | 73.7 |
Team Field Goal % | 47% | 47% |
Rebounds Per Game | 36.9 | 38.3 |
Assists Per Game | 14.8 | 16.2 |
Score Projection: LSU 73 – Kentucky 82 ATS PRO
Win Probability: LSU 23%, Kentucky 77% ATS PRO
While LSU has enough offensive talent to keep the game competitive, I'm going to lay the points with Kentucky. The Wildcats are the stronger defensive team and possess the more balanced offense. LSU's season has been a disaster and it should come to a merciful end in the first round of this tournament in Nashville.
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