The matchup between the Louisville Cardinals and Tennessee Volunteers has major implications for both teams on Tuesday night. Louisville (9-1) arrives in Knoxville riding high after an impressive 99-73 victory over Memphis, while Tennessee (7-3) has dropped three straight and will try to respond on their home floor. Before this contest between ACC and SEC opponents, continue reading to get my thoughts, including my Louisville vs Tennessee prediction.
Our Louisville vs Tennessee Pick
- Pick: Tennessee -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Louisville @ Tennessee
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, Tennessee
- Broadcast: ESPN
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Key Storylines
- Louisville has surged to a 9-1 record with a high-tempo offense that’s among the nation’s most explosive early in the season. The Cardinals are averaging 94.3 points per game thus far.
- Tennessee is 7-3 and unbeaten at home but has dropped its last three outings, including losses to Illinois and Syracuse.
- The pace of this game will be interesting to monitor, as these teams play two very different brands of basketball. Louisville's tempo is above average in college basketball this season, while Tennessee ranks 327th out of 365 Division I teams in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The team that can impose its style on this game could come away with a win.
- The Volunteers will be without junior forward Cade Phillips for the season due to shoulder surgery, forcing freshman DeWayne Brown into the starting lineup.
- Louisville’s recent offensive outburst against Memphis highlighted its ability to score in bunches, led by a balanced scoring attack. Ryan Conwell is leading the team in scoring with 19.4 points per game and he will be a key factor if the Cards are going to get another win against a power conference opponent.
- Home-court advantage will be important for Tennessee in this game. The Vols are undefeated in home games this year and will try to get back into a rhythm after struggling away from Knoxville in their last three contests.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Louisville leads the all-time series 12-9 against Tennessee.
- Tennessee has won the last two games between these teams, including their most recent matchup a season ago.
- Louisville is 7-3 against the spread on the season.
- Tennessee is just 3-7 against the spread going into this contest.
- The Vols have gone over the total in 6 of their first 10 games this year.
- The Cardinals are also 6-4 to the over entering Tuesday night's play.
Louisville vs Tennessee Model Projection
Score Projection: Louisville 74 – Tennessee 79
Win Probability: Louisville 47%, Tennessee 53%
Final Thoughts
I recommend laying the points with Tennessee in this contest from Knoxville. The Vols have played a positively brutal schedule of late and have played those good teams away from their home floor. I think that Tennessee will bounce back now that they are back on their home floor and slow down a Louisville offense that has looked incredible so far this year.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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