Kansas State Wildcats vs BYU Cougars Prediction - 3/10/2026

The opening round of the Big 12 Tournament brings together two teams with very different outlooks as Kansas State meets BYU on March 10. The Wildcats arrive in Kansas City after a difficult season, while the Cougars are hoping to build momentum and strengthen their NCAA Tournament position despite some recent struggles. Before tip-off in this Kansas State vs BYU contest, continue reading to get my breakdown of the game, as well as my best bet.

Our Kansas State vs BYU Pick

Pick: BYU -11.5 ATS PRO

Confidence: 3 out of 5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Kansas State Wildcats @ BYU Cougars
• Date & Time: Tuesday, March 10, 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
• Broadcast: ESPN+

Key Storylines

BYU enters the tournament as the No. 10 seed after finishing 9-9 in Big 12 play. The Cougars recently secured a strong 82-76 victory over Texas Tech, a result that boosted their tournament profile and showed the scoring potential of their offense. With the NCAA Tournament approaching, every win could improve their seeding.

Kansas State has endured a tough campaign, finishing near the bottom of the conference standings with only 3 Big 12 victories. The Wildcats have dropped several games late in the season and come into this tournament looking to play spoiler. Their offensive talent still gives them the ability to stay competitive if their shots fall early.

Key Players

BYU Cougars

• AJ Dybantsa – The freshman star leads the nation in scoring with roughly 24.8 points per game. His scoring ability and efficiency make him one of the most dangerous players in college basketball.
• Robert Wright III – Wright adds around 17.9 points per game and recently delivered a 27-point performance in BYU’s win over Texas Tech. His ability to create shots gives BYU another dynamic offensive option and has been important with Richie Saunders out.

Kansas State Wildcats

• PJ Haggerty – The Wildcats rely heavily on Haggerty, who averages around 23.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. He is responsible for a large share of Kansas State’s offense.
• Nate Johnson – Johnson contributes across the board and averages roughly 4.4 assists per game while providing scoring and perimeter defense.
• Khamari McGriff – McGriff offers interior scoring and rebounding, giving Kansas State needed support inside.

Stat Comparison

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• BYU defeated Kansas State earlier this season 83-73.
• Kansas State is 1-4 against the spread in its last 5 games.
• BYU has struggled against the spread recently, going 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games.
• Kansas State has lost 3 of its last 4 games.
• The total has gone over in 9 of BYU’s last 13 games.

Kansas State vs BYU Model Projection

Score Projection: Kansas State 78 – BYU 91 ATS PRO

Win Probability: Kansas State 21%, BYU 79% ATS PRO

Final Thoughts

While Kansas State still has offensive talent, the overall body of work points strongly in BYU’s direction. The Cougars have the better record, a much stronger offense, and multiple players capable of scoring 20 points on any night. AJ Dybantsa’s scoring ability alone can swing games, and he is supported by a deep backcourt that keeps pressure on opposing defenses. Kansas State’s defense has been inconsistent all season, which is a dangerous weakness against a team averaging more than 86 points per game. I'll lay the points with the Cougars here.

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