Updated March 9, 2026
The opening round of the Big 12 Tournament brings together two teams with very different outlooks as Kansas State meets BYU on March 10. The Wildcats arrive in Kansas City after a difficult season, while the Cougars are hoping to build momentum and strengthen their NCAA Tournament position despite some recent struggles. Before tip-off in this Kansas State vs BYU contest, continue reading to get my breakdown of the game, as well as my best bet.
Pick: BYU -11.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
BYU enters the tournament as the No. 10 seed after finishing 9-9 in Big 12 play. The Cougars recently secured a strong 82-76 victory over Texas Tech, a result that boosted their tournament profile and showed the scoring potential of their offense. With the NCAA Tournament approaching, every win could improve their seeding.
Kansas State has endured a tough campaign, finishing near the bottom of the conference standings with only 3 Big 12 victories. The Wildcats have dropped several games late in the season and come into this tournament looking to play spoiler. Their offensive talent still gives them the ability to stay competitive if their shots fall early.
BYU Cougars
Kansas State Wildcats
Stat | Kansas State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 79.2 | 84.3 |
Points allowed per game | 81.1 | 75.8 |
Team Field Goal % | 46% | 48% |
Rebounds Per Game | 34.2 | 38.6 |
Assists Per Game | 16.9 | 13.7 |
Score Projection: Kansas State 78 – BYU 91 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Kansas State 21%, BYU 79% ATS PRO
While Kansas State still has offensive talent, the overall body of work points strongly in BYU’s direction. The Cougars have the better record, a much stronger offense, and multiple players capable of scoring 20 points on any night. AJ Dybantsa’s scoring ability alone can swing games, and he is supported by a deep backcourt that keeps pressure on opposing defenses. Kansas State’s defense has been inconsistent all season, which is a dangerous weakness against a team averaging more than 86 points per game. I'll lay the points with the Cougars here.
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