The Iowa Hawkeyes head to Ames on Thursday night for an in-state college basketball rivalry game with the Iowa State Cyclones. Both teams arrive with strong early-season resumes, yet the Cyclones have drawn significant attention after one of the most eye-catching wins of the young season. The Cyclones are heavy favorites at home. Before these rivals do battle at Hilton Coliseum, continue reading to find my Iowa vs Iowa State prediction below.
Our Iowa vs Iowa State Pick
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones
- Date & Time: Thursday, December 11, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
Iowa State enters this rivalry game with a perfect 9-0 record and coming off a memorable 81-58 road victory over then-number-one Purdue, which stood out as one of the more significant non-conference wins in recent college basketball history. In that game, the Cyclones shot efficiently inside and beyond the arc, with multiple contributors scoring in double figures and the team shooting above 50% overall.
Iowa, meanwhile, is 8-1 with its only loss coming earlier in the season to Michigan State on the road. They most recently dispatched Maryland 83-64 behind a 25-point performance from Bennett Stirtz. That offensive output highlights Iowa’s ability to score in bunches, though questions linger about whether their supporting cast can consistently match up with a terrific Iowa State defense.
From a tactical standpoint, Iowa State’s offensive firepower and defensive intensity are major factors. The Cyclones average well over 90 points per game and force turnovers at a strong clip, while also ranking among the top teams nationally in field goal percentage. Iowa’s defense has been solid, but Iowa State’s depth and scoring options present a very different challenge than most opponents.
Iowa State’s shooters and playmakers, such as Milan Momcilovic and Tamin Lipsey, give the Cyclones versatile scoring threats that can exploit the Iowa defense. On the other side, Iowa leans heavily on Stirtz and support from players like Cam Manyawu to generate offense, and maintaining efficiency against a long and athletic Iowa State roster will be a tough task.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Iowa is 48-30 all-time against Iowa State in men’s basketball.
- Iowa State has won three of the last four games between these teams.
- The Cyclones are 7-1-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Iowa is 7-2 against the spread for the year.
- Iowa State has gone over the total in 6 of their first 9 games.
- Iowa has seen 5 of their first 9 games go over their totals.
Iowa vs Iowa State Model Projection
Final Thoughts
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