Updated December 10, 2025
The Iowa Hawkeyes head to Ames on Thursday night for an in-state college basketball rivalry game with the Iowa State Cyclones. Both teams arrive with strong early-season resumes, yet the Cyclones have drawn significant attention after one of the most eye-catching wins of the young season. The Cyclones are heavy favorites at home. Before these rivals do battle at Hilton Coliseum, continue reading to find my Iowa vs Iowa State prediction below.
Iowa State enters this rivalry game with a perfect 9-0 record and coming off a memorable 81-58 road victory over then-number-one Purdue, which stood out as one of the more significant non-conference wins in recent college basketball history. In that game, the Cyclones shot efficiently inside and beyond the arc, with multiple contributors scoring in double figures and the team shooting above 50% overall.
Iowa, meanwhile, is 8-1 with its only loss coming earlier in the season to Michigan State on the road. They most recently dispatched Maryland 83-64 behind a 25-point performance from Bennett Stirtz. That offensive output highlights Iowa’s ability to score in bunches, though questions linger about whether their supporting cast can consistently match up with a terrific Iowa State defense.
From a tactical standpoint, Iowa State’s offensive firepower and defensive intensity are major factors. The Cyclones average well over 90 points per game and force turnovers at a strong clip, while also ranking among the top teams nationally in field goal percentage. Iowa’s defense has been solid, but Iowa State’s depth and scoring options present a very different challenge than most opponents.
Iowa State’s shooters and playmakers, such as Milan Momcilovic and Tamin Lipsey, give the Cyclones versatile scoring threats that can exploit the Iowa defense. On the other side, Iowa leans heavily on Stirtz and support from players like Cam Manyawu to generate offense, and maintaining efficiency against a long and athletic Iowa State roster will be a tough task.
Score Projection: Iowa State 81 – Iowa 67
Win Probability: Iowa State 78%, Iowa 22%
Iowa State is better than Iowa on both ends of the floor. It is entirely possible that the intensity surrounding this rivalry game will help the Hawkeyes raise their level and stay competitive in this contest. But I'm going to lay the points with the Cyclones here, as their body of work so far this season has been nothing short of spectacular.
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