Updated February 18, 2026
The Illinois Fighting Illini travel to Southern California to take on the USC Trojans in Wednesday night men’s college basketball game that carries major implications for both teams’ postseason resumes. Illinois enters this contest as one of the nation’s top squads at 21-5 overall, while USC sits at 18-7 and has shown it can hang with strong opponents at home. With Illinois ranked inside the top ten in the latest polls and USC eager to build momentum before the season’s final stretch, you will find my breakdown of this game and my Illinois vs USC prediction below.
Pick: USC +9.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Illinois Fighting Illini
USC Trojans
Stat | Illinois | USC |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 84.2 | 81.3 |
Points allowed per game | 68.2 | 75.8 |
Team Field Goal % | 46.5% | 46.9% |
Rebounds per game | 41.2 | 37.3 |
Assists per game | 14.5 | 15.3 |
Illinois shows a slight advantage in scoring margin, averaging over 3 more points per game than USC and holding opponents to nearly eight fewer points per contest. The field goal percentages are very close, suggesting both offenses operate at similar efficiency, but Illinois’ ability to limit opponent scoring and secure rebounds gives it a statistical edge heading into this matchup.
Score Projection: Illinois 81 – USC 74 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Illinois 73%, USC 27% ATS PRO
Illinois will likely get the win in this contest on the West Coast, but I'm going to take the points with USC on their home floor. The Trojans have been a tough out throughout this season at home, despite their issues on the road during conference play. I think that will remain the case here, as Chad Baker-Mazara continues to keep his team in games in Southern California.
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