The Hawaiʻi Rainbow Warriors will visit the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene on Tuesday night. This is the first game of the season for both of these teams during the 2025-26 college basketball season. Oregon is a heavy favorite to start its season with a win at home, while Hawai'i will be intent on pulling off an upset. Before the action begins from Eugene, continue reading to get my Hawai'i vs Oregon prediction.
Our Hawaiʻi vs Oregon Pick
- Pick: Oregon Ducks –13
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Hawaiʻi Rainbow Warriors @ Oregon Ducks
- Date & Time: Tuesday, November 4, 2025, 10:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, Oregon
- Broadcast: Big Ten Network
Key Storylines
- The Ducks enter the season fresh off a 25–10 overall record last year and back‐to‐back NCAA appearances. They have high expectations going into this season thanks to some familiar faces returning for this year. Hawaiʻi finished 15–16 last season and is dealing with a ton of roster changes and the brutality of having to travel from Hawai'i to play on the road.
- Oregon’s roster features returning center Nathan Bittle, who averaged 14.2 points, 7.6 boards, and 2.1 blocks per game last season. Guard Jackson Shelstad contributed over 13 points per game last season and his return will also be huge for the Ducks. Hawaiʻi’s top returning contributor is forward Gytis Nemeiksa at 12.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per contest.
- The big question in this game is how Hawai'i plans on getting Oregon out of its rhythm. Oregon comes into this season ranked in the top 40 in the country in KenPom's offensive and defensive rankings. Hawai'i isn't expected to play at any sort of brisk pace, so the Rainbow Warriors will need to be incredibly efficient if they are going to give themselves any shot here.
- If there is one thing Hawai'i has going for it in this game, it's the fact that they can play like they have nothing to lose. This game ultimately doesn't mean anything for them, as they can only make the NCAA Tournament via automatic bid. So they can go for broke here and hope that pays off for them with an upset victory.
Hawaiʻi vs Oregon Model Projection
Score Projection: Hawaiʻi 60 – Oregon 80
Win Probability: Oregon 78%, Hawaiʻi 22%
Final Thoughts
I don't think that this is a good matchup for Hawai'i by any stretch of the imagination. They are not projected to play with any pace or anything that will get Oregon out of its comfort zone in this contest. I expect the Ducks to dictate the terms of this matchup and to win convincingly on their home floor to open the season. I will lay the points with Oregon in this matchup.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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