The Buffalo Bulls travel to Baltimore to face the UMBC Retrievers on Tuesday. Both of these teams are off to strong starts this season and will try to keep rolling in this MAC vs America East matchup. Buffalo is a slight favorite on the road going into this contest and you can find my Buffalo vs UMBC prediction below before this matchup tips off.
Our Buffalo vs UMBC Pick
Pick: UMBC Moneyline
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Buffalo Bulls @ UMBC Retrievers
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 9, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- Buffalo's season start: The Bulls are 8–1 overall and 2–0 on the road so far this season. Their only loss came recently at home against the St. Bonaventure Bonnies, snapping what had been the second-best winning streak to start a season in school history. Their backcourt is led by Daniel Freitag. Freitag has carried the offense, averaging 19.8 points per game. The Bulls’ steady scoring output of 77.7 PPG will be tested against a UMBC defense that gives up 70.3 PPG.
- UMBC’s home-court advantage and recent momentum: The Retrievers are 6–3 overall and a perfect 4–0 at home. Their latest win was a 73–66 decision over the Bucknell Bison. That win was fueled by Jah'Likai King’s 20 points, which helped earn him America East Player of the Week honors. On top of that, UMBC is doing well when it comes to pulling down defensive rebounds and has shown toughness in close games. The Retrievers are 2–0 in one-possession games and will need every bit of that toughness to beat the Bulls.
- Schedules and fatigue factors: Buffalo is in the midst of a road-heavy stretch. They are kicking off a stretch of 3 straight away games and 4 of 5 on the road. UMBC is playing its second straight home game and will try to get a second straight home win.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This will be only the fourth all-time meeting between the two programs and their first since the early 1990s. UMBC leads the historical series 3–0. But that history is not relevant to these rosters and this game.
- Buffalo is 6-2 against the spread so far this season.
- UMBC is 4-3 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The Bulls are 4-4 in the over/under market so far this year.
- The under has cashed in 5 of UMBC's first 7 games.
Buffalo vs UMBC Model Projection
- Score Projection: Buffalo 74 – UMBC 76
- Win Probability: Buffalo 50%, UMBC 50%
Final Thoughts
I am going to take UMBC to win as a slight underdog on the moneyline on Tuesday night. The Bulls have looked good to start this season, but they have played a bottom-20 schedule in college basketball in terms of strength of schedule so far, according to KenPom. The Retrievers should be a tough test for the Bulls here and I think UMBC will pull this game out late.
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