The WNBA’s season-opening weekend rolls on with a high-profile Western Conference game as the Phoenix Mercury travel to Las Vegas for a Finals rematch against the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday afternoon. Las Vegas enters the season with championship expectations once again behind MVP A’ja Wilson, while Phoenix brings back a veteran-led roster led by Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper. Oddsmakers have the Aces as solid home favorites, and I’ll break down whether or not that is warranted with my Mercury vs Aces prediction right here.
My Mercury vs Aces Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -8.5
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Saturday, May 9, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
The biggest storyline entering this season opener is that this is a Finals rematch. Phoenix and Las Vegas continued their fierce rivalry last year, and both teams expect to remain near the top of the Western Conference standings this season. The Mercury have veteran depth and continue to lean on physical defense, while the Aces remain one of the most explosive scoring teams in the league.
The biggest factor in this game is the battle between Alyssa Thomas and A’ja Wilson. Wilson remains the most dominant two-way player in the WNBA after another MVP-caliber season that featured elite scoring, rebounding, and rim protection. Thomas gives Phoenix a versatile forward who can push the ball, create offense, and defend several positions. Whichever frontcourt gains control early could dictate the outcome of this game.
Key Players
Las Vegas Aces
- A’ja Wilson remains the centerpiece of the Aces offense after averaging more than 25 points and 11 rebounds last season. Her ability to dominate in the paint while protecting the rim makes her the most important player on the floor.
- Jackie Young continues to give Las Vegas reliable perimeter scoring and playmaking. She attacks off the dribble, creates open looks for teammates, and defends opposing guards at a high level.
- Jewell Loyd adds another proven scorer to the rotation for Vegas. Her outside shooting gives the Aces another dangerous late-clock option.
Phoenix Mercury
- Alyssa Thomas drives the Mercury offense with her rebounding, passing, and ability to impact winning in so many ways. She nearly averaged a triple-double last season and remains one of the best all-around players in the league.
- Kahleah Copper gives Phoenix explosive scoring from the wing. She attacks the basket aggressively and can carry the offense for long stretches when her jumper is falling.
- DeWanna Bonner is going to be an important piece for the Mercury this year. With Satou Sabally gone for New York, it will likely be Bonner that has to step up as a third scorer for this team.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Las Vegas went 28-25-1 against the spread last season.
- Phoenix was 27-25-1 against the spread in 2025.
- Vegas went 7-1 against the Mercury last year, including the regular season and playoffs.
Mercury vs Aces Model Projection
- Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 79 – Las Vegas Aces 88
- Win Probability: Phoenix Mercury 34%, Las Vegas Aces 66%
Las Vegas holds the edge entering this season opener because of its offensive depth, home-court advantage, and the presence of Wilson inside. Phoenix has enough veteran talent to stay competitive for much of the afternoon, though the Mercury may struggle to contain the Aces once the pace increases in the second half. I project a 9-10 point win for the Aces here, as they should cover the spread and continue their run of dominance over Phoenix dating back to last season.
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