Torino vs Juventus Prediction: Juve Edge Derby to Keep Slim UCL Hopes Alive
Updated September 23, 2026
Updated September 23, 2026
Juventus ML at -135 is the pick. The model puts the probability at 60%, against the 57.4% implied by the current line, giving a 2.6% edge. Juve need a win to keep their Champions League qualification hopes alive and go into this Derby della Mole knowing a draw or defeat could end that ambition. The thin edge is compounded by a strong narrative case. Fair price: -150.
Match
Torino vs Juventus
Kickoff
Sun May 24 — 2:45 PM ET
Venue
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Competition
Serie A — Round 38
Torino ML
+400
Draw / Juventus ML
+270 / -135
Torino 17% Draw 23% Juventus 60%
Projected score
0 - 1
Juventus win
Reverse fixture
0 - 0
Draw at Allianz Stadium, Nov 2025
Best bet
Juventus ML
-135
Model edge +2.6%
Confidence
Juventus are 6th in Serie A on 68 points. Champions League qualification is still on the table but Spaletti's men must win and hope other results go their way. They suffered a shocking 2-0 defeat at home to struggling Fiorentina last time out, and in doing so, lost their grip on a top 4 position. Roma now occupy that final Champions League spot, and Bianconeri need two of Milan, Como and the Giallorossi to drop points if they are to play in Europe's premier competition next season.
Torino are 12th and safe. They have 44 points and no European ambition. The Derby della Mole carries emotional weight regardless of table position, but a Torino side that has scored more than once in a game only three times in their last ten league matches is not set up to go and beat a Juventus side fighting for their European future.
The reverse fixture at the Allianz Stadium in November finished 0-0. Derbies between these clubs are notoriously tight. This century Torino have beaten Juventus just once in 36 Serie A meetings, and that win was in 2015. The H2H is overwhelmingly in Juve's favour but the games tend to be close because Torino raise their intensity every time they play their city rivals.
The difference on Sunday is that Juve need the three points and Torino don't, and Spalletti's squad has the individual quality to manufacture a goal even in a scrappy, physical game. Yildiz and Conceicao are capable of moments that decide 1-0 games.
Bremer's suspension is a concern. He is Juve's defensive leader, and Gatti, who has struggled at times this season, will find it difficult to fill his role. Torino at home in a derby with Simeone up front and Vlasic pulling strings behind is not nothing. But the combination of a meaningful game for one side and a dead rubber for the other tends to play out one way over 90 minutes.
Torino Metric (last 5 lg) Juventus
0.90 xG For 1.70
1.20 xGA (lower = better) 1.40
2.8 Shots on Target 4.8
1.2 Goals Conceded 1.4
14.8 PPDA (lower = more press) 11.2
Per game averages. xG/xGA via fbref.com. PPDA via fbref.com. Shots on target and goals conceded last 5 league matches.
The xG gap is the most telling number. Torino are generating just 0.90 xG per game over their last five, which is one of the lowest figures in the division and reflects a side that has been deeply uncertain in attack since losing their best forward options to injury. Juventus at 1.70 xG are not rampant, but they create volume and Yildiz and Conceicao both generate moments of quality from low-frequency opportunities.
The xGA comparison actually favours Torino on paper at 1.20 vs 1.40, but that 1.40 for Juve includes the Fiorentina match where they conceded twice after being in control, and Bremer's suspension will add vulnerability. The underlying picture is still comfortably in Juve's favour. Torino's high PPDA number reflects a passive, defensive shape that has been Vanoli's trademark approach in difficult moments, which tends to suit a team that is patient and picks its moments. Spalletti's system is built for exactly that.
Gleison Bremer is suspended for Juventus after picking up a yellow card in the defeat to Fiorentina in GW37. The former Torino player has been the defensive anchor throughout the season and his reading of the game in derbies specifically has been crucial. Federico Gatti steps in and is expected to start alongside Kalulu in the back three.
Arkadiusz Milik (hamstring) and Juan Cabal (adductor) remain out. Vlahovic is available and will lead the line despite ongoing contract uncertainty.
Torino are without Guillermo Maripan through suspension, which removes one of their more experienced centre-backs. Ardian Ismajli is injured. Faustino Anjorin and Zakaria Aboukhlal are also unavailable. Perr Schuurs remains a long-term absentee and Duvan Zapata has been sidelined since his ACL injury.
Torino
3-5-2 (predicted)
ST
Simeone
ST
Adams
LM
Obrador
CM
Vlasic
CM
Ricci
CM
Prati
RM
Pedersen
CB
Ebosse
CB
Coco
CB
Marianucci
GK
Paleari
Juventus
3-4-2-1 (predicted)
ST
Vlahovic
AM
Yildiz
AM
Conceicao
LWB
Cambiaso
CM
Locatelli
CM
Thuram
RWB
Savona
CB
Kalulu
CB
Gatti
CB
Kelly
GK
Di Gregorio
Based on confirmed XIs from Round 37 & latest injury and suspension news.
Market Odds Implied Model Edge
Juventus ML Best bet
1X2 market
-135 57.4% 60.0% +2.6%
Draw
1X2 market
+270 27.0% 23.0% -4.0%
Torino ML
Moneyline
+400 20.0% 17.0% -3.0%
Implied probability from American odds. Model probability from our in-house projection model. Edge = model minus implied. Odds via bet365.
Juventus ML at -135 is the play, with a 2.6% model edge. That is the thinnest edge of the four articles in this GW38 set and it's worth being upfront about that. The draw is overpriced at +270 given that Juve are not coming here looking for a point. They need three and the entire Spalletti setup will be built around winning.
Torino ML at +400 has negative edge and requires Juventus to freeze on the biggest afternoon of their season. The case for -135 is not about a pricing discrepancy, it's about a clear motivation gap in a game where one team has something to win and one doesn't. That factor moves the needle enough to recommend it.
Who is the favorite for Torino vs Juventus?
Juventus are favorites at -135, with the draw at +270 and Torino at +400. The line reflects Juve's squad superiority and the motivation gap: Juventus need a win to keep their Champions League hopes alive, while Torino have nothing to play for in 12th place.
What is the best bet for Torino vs Juventus?
Juventus ML at -135. The model prices the win probability at 60% against 57.4% implied, a 2.6% edge. It is a thin edge but the motivation dynamic is clear: Juve must win, Torino are safe and mid-table. The draw is overpriced at +270 given Spalletti will set up to attack.
What is the predicted score for Torino vs Juventus?
0-1 to Juventus. Derby della Mole games are consistently low-scoring and the reverse fixture ended 0-0 at the Allianz Stadium. The model expects Juve to find the one goal that matters and defend it, with Torino struggling to create against a Spalletti side set up to control possession.
Do Juventus need to win to qualify for the Champions League?
Yes, almost certainly. Juventus are 6th on 68 points and need a win in the Derby della Mole to keep their Champions League qualification hopes alive. A draw will leave them dependent on other results, and Spalletti confirmed ahead of the game that anything less than three points is likely insufficient.
Is Bremer playing for Juventus vs Torino?
No. Gleison Bremer is suspended after receiving a yellow card in the defeat to Fiorentina in GW37. Federico Gatti is expected to start in his place in the back three alongside Pierre Kalulu and Lloyd Kelly.
What time does Torino vs Juventus kick off?
Kick-off is at 8:45 PM local time (CET), 7:45 PM BST, 2:45 PM ET on Sunday May 24. The match is broadcast live on DAZN in Italy and on Paramount+ in the United States.
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