Serie A 2026/27 Season Preview: 5 Things to Look Out For

Serie A returns on August 22 with a title race that could look very different from the one we saw last season. Inter are defending champions after finishing 11 points clear of Napoli, but changes elsewhere have created plenty of uncertainty. Napoli have replaced Antonio Conte with Massimiliano Allegri, Juventus and AC Milan are trying to recover from disappointing campaigns, while Como enter the season looking to build on their swashbuckling 2025/26 campaign by making their mark both domestically and, extraordinarily, in the Champions League.

The final league table does not tell the whole story either. Te underlying expected goals and expected points data highlights some significant differences between results and underlying performance across Serie A's leading clubs. Here are five of the biggest storylines to follow in Italy this season.

1. Can Anyone Stop Inter?

Inter begin the season as the obvious benchmark. Cristian Chivu's team won the Scudetto comfortably last season, finishing 11 points ahead of Napoli, and there has been no major summer reset to disrupt the core of the side, despite the loss of Denzel Dumfries to Real Madrid.

They have instead continued to add to an established squad. Djed Spence arrived from Tottenham in August, joining fellow England international John Stones among Inter's summer additions. That stability is important because most of their potential challengers are entering the season with considerably more questions. The underlying numbers reinforce Inter's status as Italy's strongest side.

They generated 87.05 xG across 38 matches, comfortably the highest figure in Serie A, and scored 89 goals. That difference of just +1.95 goals against xG suggests their attacking output was largely supported by the chances they created rather than an unsustainable finishing streak. They were similarly strong defensively, conceding 35 goals from 35.85 xGA.

There was, however, some overperformance in terms of results. Inter collected 87 points compared with 82.69 xPTS, a difference of +4.31 points. That is hardly enough to dismiss the champions' dominance, but it does suggest their 11-point advantage over Napoli was not entirely representative of the gap in underlying performance.

For bettors, the question is therefore not whether Inter deserved the title. They clearly did. It is whether they can produce another season in which elite underlying numbers are converted into close to 90 league points.

2. What Does Allegri's Napoli Look Like?

One of the most consequential changes in Serie A took place in Naples over the summer break.

Antonio Conte left after guiding Napoli to second place, with Massimiliano Allegri taking over on a contract running through 2029. Allegri arrives immediately after a difficult second spell with AC Milan, where a late collapse cost the Rossoneri a Champions League place.

Napoli's second-place finish makes Allegri's starting position look strong, but the underlying numbers introduce considerably more doubt.

Napoli collected 76 points despite recording an xPTS figure of just 63.46. That +12.54-point difference was the largest among Serie A's leading teams and suggests their final position significantly exceeded what their underlying performances would normally be expected to produce.

Their attacking numbers were also some way behind Inter. Napoli generated 57.76 xG, almost 30 xG fewer than the champions' 87.05, while scoring 58 goals.

Their ability to keep opponents out was particularly important. Napoli conceded 36 times from 41.63 xGA, outperforming that figure by 5.63 goals.

That puts Allegri's task into a different perspective. He is not simply inheriting the second-best team in Italy and being asked to close an 11-point gap. He is taking over a side whose results were considerably stronger than its expected-points profile.

There has also been turnover in attack. Romelu Lukaku has left for Fenerbahce after an injury-disrupted campaign riddled with disquiet and broken relationships behind the scenes, creating another question over where Napoli's goals will come from. Rasmus Hojlund showed some promise in his debut Serie A season, scoring 13 goals from 13.31 xG last season, but Lukaku's boots are big ones to fill.

For Napoli, simply repeating last season's results may require their underlying performances to improve.

3. Can Juventus and Milan Become Serious Challengers Again?

For two clubs with 55 Serie A titles between them, last season represented a remarkable low point. AC Milan finished fifth and Juventus sixth, leaving both clubs outside the Champions League places for the first time in almost 35 years.

The underlying data, however, paints a very different picture of Juventus. Luciano Spalletti's side generated 74.16 xG, the second-highest figure in Serie A and significantly more than Napoli, Roma, Como or Milan, yet Juventus scored only 61 goals. That means they finished the season 13.16 goals below their xG, comfortably one of the clearest examples of attacking underperformance among the leading teams.

Their defence was far less problematic. Juventus conceded 34 goals from 36.12 xGA, while their overall performances produced an xPTS figure of 75.50, while the Old Lady only collected 69 points.

On expected points, Juventus would have been much closer to Inter than their sixth-place finish suggests, and their 75.50 xPTS was higher than every Serie A team other than the champions.

That gives Spalletti an interesting starting point. Juventus may not need to radically improve their chance creation to climb the table. Better conversion of the opportunities they are already producing could make a substantial difference. They will be hoping the returning Randall Kolo Muani can help them to bridge the gap to Inter.

Milan's Problem Was Finishing Too

Milan show a similar pattern. They generated 64.81 xG but scored only 53 goals, an underperformance of 11.81 goals, and they will be hoping that the big money arrival of Goncalo Ramos from PSG will help tip the scales in their favour and eliminate this significant underperformance.

Defensively, they conceded 35 from 46.12 xGA, meaning their actual defensive record was 11.12 goals better than the chances they allowed would suggest, while their 70 actual points were also 5.54 higher than their 64.46 xPTS.

That makes Milan more difficult to assess than Juventus. Their attack has obvious scope for positive regression, but their defensive results were substantially better than the underlying numbers.

For both clubs, the final league positions tell only part of the story. Juventus in particular enter the new campaign with an underlying profile far stronger than sixth place suggests.

4. Como's Fourth Place Was Not a Fluke

Como really set the cat amongst the pigeons with their performances last season, becoming the f

Only a few years removed from the lower divisions, Cesc Fàbregas' side finished fourth last season and qualified for the Champions League, breaking into territory normally occupied by one of Italy's traditional giants.

The obvious question is whether they can do it again, and the advanced metrics provide a compelling reason to take them seriously.

Como generated 67.97 xG, the fourth-highest total in Serie A and more than Napoli, Roma and AC Milan. They scored 65, meaning they actually finished 2.97 goals below their xG rather than riding an unusually hot finishing season.

Their defensive performance was arguably even more impressive on the scoreboard. Como conceded only 29 goals, although their 39.54 xGA suggests they prevented 10.54 goals more than expected.

Their overall results were much closer to the underlying numbers. Como accumulated 71 points against 68.81 xPTS, an overperformance of only 2.19 points.

That is significant.

Their fourth-place finish was not built on an enormous expected-points discrepancy. Como's performances broadly resembled those of a team capable of challenging for Champions League qualification.

There is also the question of Nico Paz, whose performances were central to Como's rise. The Argentinian phenom returns after I Lariani struck a deal with Real Madrid to extend his stay for another season. It remains to be seen if the youngster can replicate his outstanding form from last season.

The bigger concern may be their defensive regression and additional workload.

Como will now have Champions League football to contend with, while conceding 29 from 39.54 xGA is unlikely to be straightforward to repeat.

Their attacking process, however, gives them a much firmer foundation than their status as a surprise fourth-place finisher might suggest.

5. Can the Promoted Teams Make the Step Up?

Venezia, Frosinone and Monza return to Serie A this season. Each faces the familiar problem of translating a successful Serie B approach into a league where mistakes are punished much more consistently.

Venezia return immediately after relegation, while Frosinone and Monza give the survival battle a mixture of clubs with recent Serie A experience rather than complete newcomers.

Instead, the first few weeks of the season should tell us whether the strengths that earned promotion survive against Serie A opposition. Venezia in particular boasted impressive metrics in Serie B last season, registering 1.84 xG/90 and conceding just 1.14 xG/90. It remains to be seen how this translates to the notoriously stingy defences of Serie A.

Monza, meanwhile, did not boast particularly impressive metrics at either end of the field, and were fortunate enough to concede just 0.88 goals per game against an xGA of 1.29. Former Southampton manager Ivan Juric will be hoping to prove that their promotion was not just a fluke.

For bettors, this could be one of the areas where early-season data becomes particularly useful. Once a reasonable Serie A sample develops, xG and xGA should provide a clearer indication of whether any of the promoted sides are performing better or worse than their initial results suggest.

The Table Did Not Tell the Whole Story

Inter enter 2026/27 as deserved champions and the strongest team in Serie A according to both the league table and the underlying numbers.

Behind them, the picture becomes much less straightforward. Napoli finished second with 76 points, but their 63.46 xPTS was lower than Inter, Juventus, Como, Roma and Milan. Juventus finished sixth despite producing 75.50 xPTS, the second-best figure in the division.

Como's fourth-place finish looks far more credible when supported by 67.97 xG and 68.81 xPTS, while Milan present a mixture of significant attacking underperformance and defensive overperformance.

Those differences are exactly what make the start of 2026/27 so interesting. Some teams need to become significantly better, others may simply need their results to start matching their performances.