Inter vs Como: Preview, Lineups & Analysis for Showdown at San Siro

Nico Paz vs Hakan Çalhanoğlu

Paz is the engine of Como's attack. He has taken 43 league shots, 15 more than anyone else in the squad, and has three goals from 2.98 xG plus three assists. He also completes 2.1 dribbles per 90 and has averaged a match rating of 8.2 over his last five games, including a goal in Lens.

Çalhanoğlu sets the tempo for Inter from the base of midfield. He creates 4.0 chances per 90, the best rate among Inter's main creators, and averages 8.9 passes into the final third. He does more on the ball than off it, though, winning just 1.1 tackles per 90, and he's played only 423 league minutes this season.

Paz roams from the number 10 role into the space beside the holding midfielder. When Barella pushes forward, Çalhanoğlu is left to cover that pocket on his own.

Edge: Paz. Çalhanoğlu will win this when Inter have the ball, but Como's best moments will come in transition, and that's where Paz is hardest to stop.

Marcus Thuram vs Jacobo Ramón

Lautaro had four league goals in 375 minutes before his injury, so Thuram now has to carry Inter's attack alone. He takes 4.4 shots per 90, has five goals from 4.91 xG, and his shots on target have been worth 6.29 xGOT. That means he's been placing his shots well and goalkeepers have kept his goalscoring numbers in check.

Ramón has barely missed a minute for Como. He's won 68% of his 53 aerial duels and makes 4.1 clearances per 90. He's also Como's first passer from the back, with 8.1 passes into the final third per 90, and he's scored twice.

Thuram's best work comes from running the channels rather than winning headers, where Ramón has the edge (68% to 61%). Every time he pulls Ramón wide, he opens space in the middle for Diouf and Sučić to arrive.

Edge: Thuram. Ramón will win his share in the air, but Thuram's shot volume and placement suggest his goals are coming.

Anastasios Douvikas vs Manuel Akanji

Douvikas arrives on the back of a hat-trick in Lens. He has five league goals from 4.73 xG and 28 shots, the second-most at Como, and his 5.16 xGOT shows he's placing his finishes well. He wins only 43% of his aerial duels, so he scores with his feet.

Akanji is the centre of Inter's back three and the hardest defender to beat in the air in this game, winning 82% of his aerials. He adds 2.1 interceptions and 3.7 clearances per 90, and he set up Bastoni's header in the derby.

The battle will be about movement. If Douvikas drops to link with Paz and Akanji follows him, Como's wingers can run into the gap he leaves. If Akanji holds his position, Douvikas has room to receive but not to turn.

Edge: Akanji, narrowly. Como won't win anything in the air, so Douvikas needs the ball played into his feet in the box.

Who gets the ball?

Inter average 62.4% possession and Como 62.1%, the top two in Serie A. Inter take 22 shots per match and allow 10.3, while Como take 20.3 and allow 12.8. One of them will have to defend for long spells on Sunday, and neither is used to it.

At San Siro, that should be Como. Inter's 3-4-2-1 builds through three centre-backs and Çalhanoğlu, which gives them a four-against-one in the first phase against Como's lone striker. Bisseck and Bastoni can then step into midfield, as Inter's outside centre-backs often do.

Como's answer is their right side. Ramón (8.1 passes into the final third per 90) and right-back Yan Couto (7.9) are their main progressors, with Lucas Da Cunha (8.7) ahead of them. Two holding midfielders, Luis Milla and either Samuele Ricci or Máximo Perrone, give them options to play through Inter's first line.

My view: Inter should have more of the ball, but Como will have their spells. If they can work it up their right side, they'll avoid being pinned back.

Where will Inter's chances come from without Lautaro?

Inter put in 24.4 crosses per match, and their wing-backs supply most of them. Carlos Augusto has two goals and two assists from left wing-back, averages 4.2 crosses per 90 and wins 71% of his aerial duels. Federico Dimarco, Inter's top creator with 21 chances, could also start.

With Lautaro out, there's only one striker to aim at, and Thuram (61% aerials) against Ramón (68%) isn't a matchup Inter want to rely on. The better target is the back post.

That's where Como are weak. Couto has yet to win an aerial duel in Serie A this season, and left-back Kaiki has won only 38% of his aerial duels. Augusto arriving at the far post against Couto is a clear route to goal.

My view: Inter's wing-backs, not Thuram, are the key to breaking Como down. Watch the far post from crosses on Inter's right.

Can Como hurt Inter behind their wing-backs?

Inter's system has a weakness. With Spence and Augusto pushed high, the channels behind them are covered only by Bisseck and Bastoni. Milan exploited exactly that in the derby: Diego Moreira set up both of their goals in the first ten minutes from their right wing-back position.

Como have the players to do the same. Da Cunha will attack Augusto's side, as Moreira did, and Baturina has three goals from 1.44 xG in only 473 minutes on the other flank. Kaiki adds 2.0 dribbles per 90 from left-back.

Inter have been vulnerable all season. They've conceded 13 league goals from 9.79 xGA, and Milan scored three times from 0.5 xG in the derby.

My view: Como's best chances will come on the counter, down the sides of Inter's back three. That's why I expect them to score, even if they don't win.

The data points one way here. Inter create 2.69 xG per match and allow 0.98, and their xG difference of +17.08 is almost double anyone else's in Serie A. Como are excellent, but their 23 points have come from 17.7 xPts, and San Siro is a step up from Lens, where they won 9-1 on 4.18 xG.

History is on Inter's side too. Como have never beaten them in seven meetings, losing six. Losing Lautaro hurts, but Thuram's shot volume and Inter's wing-backs still give them more ways to score than Como can cover, especially with Kean among five Como absentees.

Paz is the one player who could change the game, and the space behind Inter's wing-backs gives him and Da Cunha room to work. I still think Inter win it, which lines up with the ATS Quantitative Model's projected 2-1, but Como could well push the champions all the way.