Updated August 21, 2026
Nottingham Forest may be one of the hardest Premier League teams to price heading into 2026/27. Oliver Glasner is a significant managerial upgrade and inherits a squad containing enough individual quality to move away from the relegation places. At the same time, Forest finished only 16th last season, produced a negative expected-goal differential and have subsequently sold arguably their most complete midfielder in Elliot Anderson for £116 million.
That combination makes the extremes difficult to support. Forest collected only 44 points last season, meaning they need a meaningful improvement simply to push beyond the high 40s. Given the loss of Anderson, uncertainty around the attack and the transition to Glasner's 3-4-2-1, Nottingham Forest under 47 Premier League points is the futures position that best reflects those risks.
Forest's 44 points were not especially unlucky. They scored 48 goals from 47.21 xG and conceded 51 from 55.17 xGA, leaving them with a -7.96 expected-goal differential. That works out at approximately 1.24 xG and 1.45 xGA per game. Their actual goal difference was -3, so results were actually a little kinder than the expected-goal balance. Their xPTS of 42.24 would have placed them 17th last season, barely surviving the drop.
Forest did have mitigating circumstances. They went through repeated managerial change while also dealing with European commitments, creating a season in which the squad was constantly being asked to adjust. Glasner now arrives with the opportunity to provide considerably more stability. Removing Europe and installing a proven Premier League coach should improve their floor, but the starting point remains important. Glasner is inheriting a team that needs to make a meaningful statistical improvement merely to reach the high 40s.
Forest's £116 million sale of Elliot Anderson to Manchester City helps fund the rebuild, but replacing what he did on the pitch is considerably harder. Anderson was not simply a possession midfielder. He combined progression with exceptional defensive activity, finishing last season with 127 tackles while also providing line-breaking passes and progressive carries.
His attacking contribution was useful too. Anderson finished with 4 goals and 4 assists, while generating roughly 3.1 xG and 4.6 xA over the league campaign.
That combination was particularly valuable because Forest could use him to play through pressure without sacrificing midfield intensity. Glasner's preferred 3-4-2-1 places enormous responsibility on the central pair. They have to protect transitions when the wing-backs advance, win second balls and then move possession forward quickly enough to connect with the attacking midfielders.
Forest can redistribute those responsibilities, but replacing Anderson's defensive volume and progression simultaneously is one of the biggest challenges facing Glasner.
There are nevertheless strong reasons to believe Forest can remain comfortably above the weakest teams. Glasner is expected to implement the 3-4-2-1 structure associated with his Crystal Palace side, and the existing squad appears relatively well suited to it.
Murillo and Nikola Milenković already provide a strong central defensive foundation, while the signing of Ousmane Diomande gives Glasner another defender capable of operating naturally within a back three. Ola Aina and Neco Williams also possess the athleticism required to operate as wing-backs, so this is not a case of Forest attempting to impose a completely unsuitable tactical system on the squad.
Where the caution comes in is possession. Glasner's best teams are particularly dangerous after turnovers, but those transitions still need midfielders capable of advancing the ball quickly and finding the attacking players before opponents recover their defensive shape.
Forest have just sold arguably their best player at doing exactly that. The tactical framework could therefore improve quite quickly while the quality of execution takes longer to recover.
Diomande may be the most convincing piece of Forest's summer recruitment. His arrival gives Glasner three physically imposing central defenders and should allow Forest to defend more aggressively rather than simply retreating toward their own penalty area.
That matters because the underlying defensive numbers were not disastrous, but they were still too weak for a team aspiring to climb into the top half. Forest allowed 55.17 xGA, equivalent to 1.45 per game. If Glasner can reduce that figure toward 50 across the full season, Forest would gain considerably more margin for error.
However, they already conceded only 51 actual goals last season, meaning the scoreboard was somewhat kinder than the expected data. A moderate defensive improvement may therefore show up more clearly in the underlying numbers than in the raw goals-against column. That is why I would be wary of assuming one new defender automatically turns Forest into a 50-point team.
Morgan Gibbs-White becomes even more important following Anderson's departure. He led Forest with 15 Premier League goals last season and remains the team's most obvious source of final-third quality. The broader team numbers illustrate why his contribution matters so much. Forest generated only 47.21 xG across the entire season while producing 476 shots and 156 shots on target.
This was not an attack producing enough chances for goals to be spread easily across the squad. Glasner's system should suit Gibbs-White because one of the two attacking-midfield positions behind the striker gives him opportunities to receive between the lines while remaining close enough to goal to shoot. However, Forest need more production around him. If Gibbs-White's finishing falls back toward expectation, players such as Omari Hutchinson, Dan Ndoye and Forest's central strikers will need to compensate.
Forest's schedule provides one of the strongest arguments against being overly bearish. After dealing with both domestic pressure and European commitments last season, Glasner can now devote substantially more training time to his tactical structure. That is particularly valuable for a coach whose system depends heavily on coordinated pressing movements.
The distances between the back three, central midfielders and attacking players have to remain compact when Forest press, while the wing-backs need to know exactly when they can advance without leaving the outside center-backs exposed. Those mechanisms become easier to coach when the team has full training weeks, and it is one of the main reasons I would stop short of making relegation the primary bet.
Forest can remain safely above the bottom three while still failing to reach 47 points.
Forest's underlying profile gives us a fairly clear starting point.
They finished with:
Those numbers do not demand a collapse, but neither do they provide much evidence that Forest should suddenly become a top-half side. Glasner should improve the organization, Diomande strengthens the defense and the lack of European football should help. On the other side of the equation, Anderson has left and the attack still needs additional reliable production outside Gibbs-White. That combination makes another low-to-mid-40s season entirely plausible. Forest could therefore improve tactically, remain relatively comfortable in the survival battle and still cash an under-47-points bet.
Player | Key Metric / Angle | Target Market |
|---|---|---|
Morgan Gibbs-White | 15 league goals and central attacking role | 2+ Shots / 1+ Shot on Target |
Omari Hutchinson | Five league assists last season | Assist Props / To Score or Assist |
Ousmane Diomande | Major aerial target in a three-center-back system | 1+ Shot / Anytime Scorer vs weak set-piece defenses |
Nikola Milenković | Strong aerial presence from defensive set pieces | 1+ Shot / Goalscorer Props situationally |
There are two competing versions of Nottingham Forest heading into 2026/27. The optimistic version sees Oliver Glasner inheriting a talented squad, installing a system that suits its defenders and benefiting enormously from the absence of European football. Diomande strengthens the back line, while Gibbs-White gives Forest a proven Premier League match-winner.
The underlying numbers make it difficult to project a dramatic jump immediately. Forest generated 47.21 xG against 55.17 xGA last season, producing a -7.96 xG differential, while finishing 16th with 44 points.
They have also sold Elliot Anderson, whose combination of ball progression and 127 tackles made him exceptionally difficult to replace with a single midfielder. Glasner should make Forest better organized, and there is enough talent here to survive. That does not necessarily mean the improvement will translate into 50-plus points.
For that reason, Nottingham Forest under 47 Premier League points is the futures angle I prefer. It allows Forest to improve tactically and remain in the Premier League while recognizing that last season's underlying process, Anderson's departure and the uncertainty around the attack leave them vulnerable to another campaign in the bottom six.
