Updated August 20, 2026
Everton finished 13th with 49 points last season, but the underlying numbers make it difficult to build a convincing case for a push into the top half.
David Moyes' side scored 47 goals from 47.45 xG, meaning the attack finished almost exactly where the quality of its chances suggested it should. At the other end, Everton conceded 50 goals from 56.91 xGA, an overperformance of nearly seven goals.
That left them with an expected-goal differential of approximately -9.5, substantially worse than their actual goal difference of -3.
The important point for bettors is that there is no obvious positive-regression story hidden in those numbers. Everton were not creating 60-goal chances and finishing badly. They were not conceding through a run of unusually poor goalkeeping. If anything, their defensive results were slightly kinder than the process behind them.
That makes a bottom-half position more attractive than backing Everton to climb into the top 10.
Moyes has built his reputation on organisation, compactness and making teams difficult to beat, so Everton conceding fewer goals than their xGA is not automatically a sign of luck.
But the size of the gap still calls into question how much of this overperformance was good defending and heroics from Jordan Pickford, and how much of it was luck.
Their 56.91 xGA equates to approximately 1.50 expected goals conceded per game. A side allowing chances at that rate is unlikely to become a reliable top-half team unless the attack offers significantly more at the other end.
Everton conceded only 50, around seven fewer than expectation. If that defensive overperformance disappears while the underlying process stays the same, the raw goals-against total could drift toward the mid-to-high 50s, which in turn would place considerably more pressure on an attack that produced only 47 goals last season.
There is also a meaningful home-away split. Everton allowed approximately 25.7 xGA at home and 31.2 xGA away, so their defensive structure was far stronger at Hill Dickinson Stadium than on the road.
That makes Everton a team to approach selectively rather than one to back broadly across the season.
The attacking numbers are arguably an even bigger problem for the Top 10 case. Everton scored 47 goals from 47.45 xG, landing almost precisely on their expected number.
Unlike Crystal Palace, who massively underperformed their expected goals, Everton cannot simply point toward improved finishing as an obvious route to a significantly higher goal total. Their roughly 1.25 xG per game was a mid-to-lower-table attacking rate, and their average chance quality was about 0.11 xG per shot.
That means any substantial improvement has to come from creating more chances rather than simply finishing existing opportunities better.
That is where the summer window becomes important, but the reinforcements have hardly arrived in their droves.
Brennan Johnson is a useful addition. He gives Everton a direct runner, genuine pace in transition and someone capable of attacking the space behind a defensive line. Those are qualities Moyes' side lacked at times last season as Moyes faded Dwight McNeil out of the setup.
But Johnson alone does not address every attacking weakness. Everton still lack consistent creativity between the lines, depth in several positions and the kind of high-level chance creator that could meaningfully change an attack producing around 47 xG.
Johnson can improve Everton, the question is whether he improves them enough to change the overall projection. At this stage, that is difficult to support. His arrival looks more like a sensible addition to an existing mid-table squad than the beginning of a major rebuild.
The lack of recruitment becomes more significant because Moyes himself has repeatedly emphasized the need for additional depth.
Everton entered the summer needing reinforcements across several positions, with right-back, central defense and attacking depth among the obvious areas requiring attention.
That work remains incomplete despite the additions of Johnson, Tyrique George and Championship POTY Hayden Hackney. The squad therefore enters the season with many of the same limitations that produced last year's underlying numbers.
Continuity is useful when a team is already performing above the level required, but it is less reassuring when the underlying profile is negative.
Everton's -9.5 expected-goal differential suggests this was not a team one or two unlucky results away from Europe. They were more often giving up better chances than they created across the season. Without significant squad improvement, there is no clear reason to assume that balance suddenly reverses.
The argument against being too bearish is Everton's home form. Their underlying numbers at Hill Dickinson Stadium were significantly better than their away numbers, and a second full season at the ground should provide an increasingly settled home advantage.
Everton's home expected-goal numbers were almost perfectly balanced at roughly 25.7 xG and 25.7 xGA, while away from home, they generated around 21.8 xG while allowing 31.2 xGA, representing a stark drop off in performance away from Hill Dickinson.
Everton therefore remain capable of accumulating enough points at home to stay well clear of the relegation battle, even if their overall season remains underwhelming.
This is why the thesis is bottom half, not relegation. Moyes' experience, Everton's physical profile and their home environment should make them too difficult for most of the promoted and lower-end sides to consistently outperform.
But none of those factors necessarily push them into the top 10.
Everton generated approximately 12.67 set-piece xG last season, more than a quarter of their total attacking xG. If ever there was a hallmark of a David Moyes side, this is it.
James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite, Jake O'Brien and Beto give Everton plenty of aerial presence, while Moyes teams have traditionally placed a high value on corners and indirect free kicks.
Set pieces therefore remain particularly important because Everton do not create enough open-play chances to simply overwhelm teams. Against opponents vulnerable from dead balls, Everton team totals and defender shot markets can still offer useful situational angles.
But this is another area where the ceiling is limited. A strong set-piece attack can help a mid-table side win close games, but it does not necessarily solve an overall attacking profile of only 1.25 xG per game.
Everton's 2025/26 statistical profile was:
There are very few numbers there that point toward obvious improvement. The attack finished almost exactly to expectation, while the defense actually performed better than expectation.
However, the expected-goal differential was negative and the summer window has not substantially altered the squad.
That combination makes the Top 10 case difficult. Everton can still have a perfectly respectable season and finish 11th, 12th or 13th again. In fact, that is probably the range that best fits both the numbers and the current squad.
For that reason, Everton Bottom Half is the more logical futures angle.
Everton's prop markets remain more appealing on a match-by-match basis than their broader attacking outlook. Beto has the clearest established shot profile, while Johnson's direct role should create opportunities if he becomes a regular starter.
Player | Key Metric / Angle | Target Market |
|---|---|---|
Beto | 0.51 xG/90; 9 goals from 8.9 xG | 2+ Shots / 1+ Shot on Target |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.36 xG+xA/90; efficient SOT rate | 1+ Shot on Target / To Score or Assist |
Brennan Johnson | Adds pace and direct transition threat | 1+ Shot / To Score or Assist |
James Tarkowski | 2.7 xG from center-back last season | 1+ Shot / Anytime Goalscorer vs. weak set-piece defenses |
Everton enter 2026/27 with enough structure and experience to stay clear of serious trouble, but there is little in either the underlying numbers or the summer window to suggest a meaningful climb up the table.
Their attack scored almost exactly in line with its xG last season, so there is no obvious finishing bounce coming. More importantly, Everton conceded around seven fewer goals than their xGA suggested, which creates some defensive regression risk.
The squad has also changed very little. Brennan Johnson should improve the transition threat, but he does not by himself fix an attack that generated only 47.45 xG, while Moyes has been open about the need for additional reinforcements.
Everton can still be difficult to beat, especially at Hill Dickinson Stadium, and their set-piece threat should continue to produce points in tight games.
But the overall profile looks much closer to another 11th-to-15th-place finish than a genuine top-half breakthrough. That makes Everton Bottom Half the more compelling futures position.