Como vs Manchester United Prediction & Preview: United Misery Continues
Updated October 21, 2026
Updated October 21, 2026
Nine. That’s how many first-team players Manchester United are missing for this evening's trip to Como. Lisandro Martínez, Leny Yoro, Kobbie Mainoo and Marcus Rashford are all out, so Michael Carrick could start Harry Maguire next to a rusty Matthijs de Ligt ona saturated pitch.
Cesc Fàbregas’s Como put four past RB Leipzig in their first Champions League home game and won 3-1 at Fiorentina on Sunday. United haven’t won in six, and they’ve won once in their last 10 Champions League away games. Yet United are still 34¢ here. That price reflects the club’s name more than the side that will start tonight.
Our model sees an 6% edge on Como to win at 42¢.
Why I'm Backing Como
“The market is pricing United’s badge, not the players who got on the plane. Carrick is missing nine first-team players, including three center-backs and his whole left side, and United have won one of their last 10 Champions League away games. Como just won 3-1 at Fiorentina and beat Leipzig 4-1 on this very pitch. At 42¢ (+138), Como is my pick.”
United’s defense has been gutted
Carrick confirmed on Tuesday that Martínez, Rashford (hip), Mainoo, Luke Shaw and Ayden Heaven (illness) didn’t travel. Yoro is suspended after his red card in Madrid, and Benjamin Šeško, Patrick Dorgu and Manuel Ugarte are long-term absentees. That leaves a rusty Matthijs de Ligt beside Harry Maguire, with 19-year-old Harry Amass or Diogo Dalot at left-back.
The two sides are heading in opposite directions
United have won once in eight, conceded in six straight, and won just one of their last 10 Champions League away games (W1 D3 L6). Como's form has also been indifferent of late, but they bounced back at the weekend in their 3-1 win over Fiorentina.
Como at 42¢ is too cheap
Como are 42¢ (+138), United 34¢ and the draw 25¢. The ATS Quantitative Model projects Como 1.74 xG and United 1.11, which gives Como a 48% chance of winning. An orange weather warning forecasts 64 mm of rain before kickoff, which could slow the game down. It doesn’t change which side is better set up to exploit a makeshift back line.
Recommended Position:
Como to Win
Current Price:
42¢
Model Probability:
48%
Market Probability:
42%
Model Edge:
6%
Entry Threshold:
45¢
Model Confidence:
64/100
Metric (2026-27 UCL and last 10 games) | Como | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
2026-27 UCL Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-1 | 1-0-1 |
UCL Goals For / Against | 6 / 4 | 4 / 2 |
Combined Goals Per Match (UCL) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
Projected xG Tonight | 1.74 | 1.11 |
Average Possession | 51.0% | 50.0% |
Corners For / Against Per 90 (Last 5) | 5.70 / 5.60 | 6.20 / 2.90 |
Fouls Committed Per 90 | 13.5 | 12.5 |
Current Run | Unbeaten at home this season (3 matches) | 6 games winless |
Consecutive Games Conceding | 4 | 6 |
Como’s two Champions League games have averaged five goals (a 4-1 win over Leipzig, then a 3-2 loss at Feyenoord), and they’ve conceded in four straight. United have been tighter in Europe, but they’ve conceded in six straight overall, most recently Sunday’s 1-1 at Leeds. The Sinigaglia has been a fortress for Como this season. They are unbeaten at home so far season, while United are in a barren run of 1 win in their last 8, that coming at home to Ipswich.
Fàbregas is without Jesús Rodríguez and Trevoh Chalobah, but his 4-2-3-1 is well suited to this opponent. Máximo Perrone and Lucas Da Cunha control the tempo from the double pivot. Yan Couto and Álex Valle push high from full-back, which opens central pockets for Nico Paz and Martin Baturina behind Anastasios Douvikas.
A back line short of its usual center-backs and left-backs will have trouble tracking all of that.
Carrick has lost both center-backs from the weekend and every natural left-back. His options are to rush De Ligt back alongside Maguire, or move Noussair Mazraoui inside and start Amass on a wet pitch.
United’s best chances will come on the counter and from set pieces.
Como have allowed more than 2.0 xG in two of their last four games, which gives Fernandes, Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo room to work in transition.
Como 1907
Manchester United
