Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Preview: Back Gunners to Grind Down Bayern
Updated October 21, 2026
Updated October 21, 2026
Arsenal have won both their Champions League games without conceding. Tonight they visit a Bayern Munich side missing Michael Olise (suspended) and Jamal Musiala (thigh), their two main chance creators. Bayern are 46¢ favorites, but against a defense allowing 0.26 xGA per 90 in Europe, I don’t think they create enough to justify that price.
Our model sees an 8% edge on Bayern No (Arsenal Double Chance) at 54¢.
Why Arsenal Avoid Defeat in Munich
“Bayern are 46¢ favorites, but they’re without Olise and Musiala, their two best players at beating a set block. Arsenal have conceded 0.52 xG across two Champions League games, and after Saturday’s 1-0 win at Forest, I expect Arteta to keep this tight. Bayern No pays on an Arsenal win or a draw, and at 54¢ (-117) it’s the value play in this marquee matchup.”
Bayern are missing their two best creators
Bayern put six past Leipzig on Saturday, but tonight they’re without Michael Olise (suspended after his red card against Viking) and Jamal Musiala (thigh). Vincent Kompany is also off the touchline with a viral infection. That leaves 18-year-old Lennart Karl and Ismael Saibari to break down the best defense in the competition.
Arsenal give nothing away in Europe
Arsenal beat Napoli 1-0 and Lille 3-0, allowing 0.52 xG across the two games and 4.5 shots per game. Bayern's attack even without Olise and Musiala are a different proposition, but Ezri Konsa and Gabriel have kept things tight in Saliba's absence.
A tight game suits Bayern No
Bayern’s last six games have averaged 5.33 goals, mostly from Bundesliga blowouts. In the Champions League, though, they’ve allowed just 1.03 xG and 5.5 shots per game. Their last meeting with Arsenal at the Allianz Arena, the 2024 quarter-final, finished 1-0. In a low-scoring game a draw is very much in play, and Bayern No pays on that.
Recommended Position:
Bayern No (Arsenal Win or Draw)
Current Price:
54¢
Model Probability:
62%
Market Probability:
54%
Model Edge:
8%
Entry Threshold:
59¢
Model Confidence:
68/100
Metric (2026–27 UEFA Champions League) | Bayern Munich | Arsenal |
2026–27 UCL Record (Points / GD) | 1-1-0 (4 pts / +5) | 2-0-0 (6 pts / +4) |
UCL Goals Scored / Conceded (Per 90) | 4.00 / 1.50 (8:3) | 2.00 / 0.00 (4:0) |
UCL Expected Goals (xG) Total (Per 90) | 5.93 (2.97) | 5.75 (2.88) |
UCL Expected Goals Allowed (xGA) Total (Per 90) | 1.03 (0.52) | 0.52 (0.26) |
UCL Shots Allowed Per 90 | 5.5 (11 Total) | 4.5 (9 Total) |
UCL Average Possession | 65.5% | 57.9% |
UCL Attempted Passes Per 90 | 632.5 | 575.0 |
UCL Fouls Committed / Yellow Cards Per 90 | 6.5 / 1.0 | 12.0 / 1.5 |
The defensive metrics in the table jump off the page, making Under 2.5 a compelling secondary angle.
Bayern and Arsenal rank among Europe’s stingiest shot-suppression units, allowing just 5.5 and 4.5 shots per 90 respectively while holding opponents to a combined 1.55 xGA across four total Champions League matches.
While Bayern conceded three times in a bizarre 3-3 draw at Viking FK on Matchday 2, that came off just 0.60 xGA and a red card to Michael Olise.
Meanwhile, Arsenal commit nearly double Bayern’s foul rate in Europe (12.0 vs. 6.5 per 90), systematically breaking up transition phases before opponents reach the final third.
This is important against a Bayern side likely to threaten the Gunners in transition through Diaz and Saibari.
Without Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala, Bayern lose their primary right-sided and central half-space creators. Youngster Lennart Karl is projected to deputize on the right wing, with Ismael Saibari operating behind Harry Kane and Saturday hat-trick hero Luis Díaz on the left.
That shifts Bayern’s attacking emphasis heavily toward their left flank, where Alphonso Davies and Díaz will look to double up on Jurriën Timber.
However, Timber, Bukayo Saka, and Declan Rice form one of the most disciplined right-sided defensive triangles in world football, meaning Bayern will likely be forced into low-probability shots from distance.
Out of possession, expect Arteta to replicate the mid-to-low 4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1 block that limited Bayern to just six shots (and zero shots for Harry Kane across 90 minutes) last November, and held Nottingham Forest to 0-1 on Saturday.
With Myles Lewis-Skelly partnering Declan Rice in the double pivot and Ezri Konsa stepping in seamlessly alongside Gabriel, Arsenal will happily cede 60%+ possession in non-threatening zones while looking to hit Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano on set pieces and selective counters through Saka, Noni Madueke, and Kai Havertz.
Bayern Munich
Arsenal
