Tottenham arrive at the Metropolitano in Madrid in crisis. Sitting just 1 point above the Premier League relegation zone and winless across their last 6 matches in all competitions, Spurs could do with some respite in Europe. It is unlikely to come in the form of a hungry Atletico Madrid side, however. Diego Simeone’s team arrive on the back of 3 wins from their last 5 games, including a Copa del Rey semi-final demolition of Barcelona at the Metropolitano. The tie has one clear favorite, and the numbers back it up.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Pick
Atletico Madrid Moneyline (-155)
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Match Preview
Atletico arrive in good shape. Their most recent result was a 3-2 win over Real Sociedad in La Liga on March 7, in which they peppered the Sociedad goal with 28 shots and could have scored plenty more than just 3. Alexander Sorloth has been the standout performer in European competition, scoring 6 goals across his last 5 appearances. Lookman added his name to the scoresheet on his Champions League debut for the club against Club Brugge and has 16 goal involvements in his last 21 UEFA appearances. The only injury concerns for Simeone are Pablo Barrios, who remains out with a thigh problem, and Rodrigo Mendoza, who was forced off at half-time against Real Sociedad with an ankle knock. Those are manageable losses for a squad with plenty of depth.
Tottenham‘s situation is far more troubling. Igor Tudor has yet to win a single game since taking charge, and the injury list reads like a who’s who of their best players. James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert and Lucas Bergvall are all sidelined. Their last 5 away games in Europe tell a different story to their league form, with wins over Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt showing they can raise their level in this competition. Dominic Solanke remains one of the few consistent performers, and Archie Gray has shown maturity beyond his years in midfield. But the absences are simply too significant to ignore heading into a tie of this magnitude.
Betting Insights
- Atletico Madrid Moneyline: -155
- Draw: +295
- Tottenham Moneyline: +456
- Atletico Madrid Asian Handicap -1: +110
- Both Teams to Score Yes: -172
- Over 2.5 Goals: -140
The Atletico moneyline at -155 is the starting point for most bettors here, and it is hard to argue with the price. The implied win probability for Atletico sits at around 59%, which feels accurate given the form gap between the two clubs. The Asian Handicap at -1 for Atletico is worth serious consideration at +110. Atletico have scored 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 10 matches, and with Tottenham missing so many attacking players, keeping the hosts at bay for 90 minutes is a big ask. The Atletico -1 line gives a payout on any 2 goal winning margin or more, which feels like a realistic scenario.
Lookman at anytime scorer is another strong play. His European record is exceptional and he is expected to start. He has 16 goal involvements in his last 21 UEFA appearances, and with Tottenham’s defence likely to be stretched, he will get opportunities. Sorloth is the other obvious anytime scorer candidate given his current run of form.
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Prediction
This match has the feel of a controlled Atletico performance rather than an open shootout. Simeone will set his team up to be hard to break down while maximising their threat on the counter and from set pieces. Tottenham will work hard and show more discipline in Europe than they have in the league, but with the continued absence of Maddison and Kulusevski there is simply not enough creative quality in the squad to cause Atletico sustained problems. Solanke will battle throughout and may get 1 or 2 half-chances, but Oblak is well capable of handling anything Spurs are likely to produce. A 2-0 home win feels like the most probable outcome. Atletico will be clinical when opportunities arrive, keep things tight at the back, and take a commanding lead into the second leg at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Model Projection
Score Projection: Atletico Madrid 2 – Tottenham 0
Win Probability: Atletico Madrid 59%, Tottenham 19%, Draw 22%
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