Steelers vs Saints Player Props: Top 3 Predictions for NFL Paris Game
Updated October 23, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
Updated October 23, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
The NFL heads to Paris for the first time on Sunday, October 25, as the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the New Orleans Saints in Week 7. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET at Stade de France, with the game airing on NFL Network.
Both teams are coming off Week 6 wins. Pittsburgh (4-2) rallied from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Tampa Bay 26-19 in overtime, while New Orleans (2-4) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 34-27 victory over the Giants.
With both teams looking to build on those wins, I'm focusing on three NFL player props where I see the most value. Below, I'll break down my predictions for Tyler Shough, Germie Bernard, and DK Metcalf, along with the stats, trends, and matchups behind each one.
Pittsburgh's Zone-Heavy Defense
The Steelers have played zone coverage on 82.8% of opposing dropbacks, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Shough has struggled against zone this season, averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt while throwing five interceptions. By comparison, he's thrown nine touchdowns without an interception against man coverage.
Limited Red-Zone Opportunities
Pittsburgh has allowed just 10 red-zone trips through six games, the fewest in the NFL, while surrendering touchdowns on only 14.5% of opposing possessions. New Orleans has converted 84.2% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns, but maintaining that efficiency against Pittsburgh could be difficult.
Potential Touchdown Regression
Shough threw three touchdowns against the Giants last week despite finishing with just 144 passing yards on 30 attempts. His 10% touchdown rate was nearly double his season average of 5.1%, and he's averaged just 175.3 passing yards and 5.1 yards per attempt over his last three games.
Recommended Prediction:
Shough 2+ Pass TDs (No)
Current Market Price:
63¢
Model Under Probability:
69.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
63.0%
Model Edge:
+6.1%
Buy Up To:
68¢
Model Confidence:
78/100
Increased Target Volume
Bernard has caught 17 of 21 targets over his last two games, including 11 receptions against Tampa Bay last week. He's averaged 10.5 targets per game during that stretch, with target shares of 30% and 27.3%, suggesting he's becoming one of Aaron Rodgers' favorite options.
High-Percentage Passing Role
Bernard's average depth of target over the last two games is just 3.6 yards, and he's caught 81% of his targets. Pittsburgh also throws on 66.2% of offensive plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Rodgers' reliance on quick, short passes gives Bernard plenty of opportunities to reach six catches.
Favorable Matchup and Expanded Role
New Orleans plays single-high coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL, a look against which Bernard has averaged 2.59 yards per route run since Week 5. With Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson on injured reserve, Bernard has also played over 90% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in each of his last two games.
Recommended Prediction:
G. Bernard 6+ REC (Yes)
Current Market Price:
44¢
Model Over Probability:
49.6%
Market-Implied Probability:
44.0%
Model Edge:
+5.6%
Buy Up To:
49¢
Model Confidence:
75/100
Saints Struggle Against Deep Passes
New Orleans has given up the eighth-most deep passing yards and the highest success rate on downfield throws in the NFL. That's encouraging for Metcalf, who ranks third among wide receivers with 12 deep targets this season. He could find the end zone without needing a red-zone opportunity.
Metcalf's Increased Role
Metcalf caught 11 of 15 targets for 93 yards against Tampa Bay last week. With Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson sidelined, he's become one of Rodgers' main options in the passing game. He's also scored just once on 52 targets this season, suggesting there's room for positive touchdown regression.
Pittsburgh's Goal-Line Passing
Pittsburgh has passed on 88% of its plays inside the opponent's 10-yard line, well above the NFL average of 47%. That's worth considering against a Saints defense that has allowed a league-high 26 red-zone trips and 29.7 points per game.
Recommended Prediction:
Metcalf Anytime TD (Yes)
Current Market Price:
36¢
Model TD Probability:
40.7%
Market-Implied Probability:
36.0%
Model Edge:
+4.7%
Buy Up To:
40¢
Model Confidence:
71/100
The Steelers are currently priced at 62¢ to win on Polymarket, implying a 62% chance of beating the Saints. Our ATS Quantitative Model also favors Pittsburgh and sees value in backing the Steelers, as detailed in our Steelers vs Saints prediction.
Pittsburgh is also priced as a 3.5-point favorite, with its -3.5 spread priced at 47¢ on Polymarket. Meanwhile, the game total sits at 44.5 points, with the Over trading at 50¢.
