The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Soldier Field on Sunday to take on the Chicago Bears in a critical Week 12 game. Both of these teams are at the top of their respective divisions entering this week. A win here would be huge for the playoff hopes of the team that gets it. Before kickoff from Chicago, continue reading to get my Steelers vs Bears prediction for this contest.
Our Steelers vs Bears Pick
- Pick: Bears –3
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is listed as questionable after suffering a fracture in his left wrist during the Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Coach Mike Tomlin has said his status will come down to his comfort and functionality. While surgery has apparently been avoided, Rodgers’ ability to throw effectively remains in doubt. The Steelers turned to Mason Rudolph in relief last week, and he completed 12 of 16 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown.
The Bears are surging under head coach Ben Johnson. With a 7–3 record, they’ve won three straight and are at the top of the NFC North standings. Their ground game has become a cornerstone of their offense whether it is D’Andre Swift or one of his backups toting the rock. Swift has rushed for over 500 yards on the year and is averaging roughly 4.8 yards per carry. He also brings a receiving threat out of the backfield, giving Chicago a multidimensional attack.
Quarterback Play
If Rodgers is unable to go, the Steelers will rely on Mason Rudolph. Rudolph has familiarity with the system but lacks the elite playmaking that Rodgers provides. While Rudolph’s relief appearance against the Bengals was solid, his ceiling in this game may be capped on the road against another decent team.
The Bears will start Caleb Williams, who has 13 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. The Bears’ run-first identity and improved line have helped shield Williams from more issues this season. But he will need to protect the football and avoid making mistakes when pressured by the Steelers’ pass rush.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Chicago is 6-4 against the spread so far this season.
- Pittsburgh is 5-5 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The Bears have gone 5-4-1 to the over going into this matchup.
- Pittsburgh is 5-5 on over/unders this year.
- The Steelers are 2-2 on the road this season and have done most of their damage at home.
- Chicago is 3-1 at home on the season thus far.
Steelers vs Bears Model Projection
Score Projection Bears 24 – Steelers 20
Win Probability: Bears 60%, Steelers 40%
Final Thoughts
The Bears should have the upper hand in this matchup against the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers is dealing with an injury that should limit his productivity to some degree. As long as Caleb Williams doesn’t have turnover issues against the Pittsburgh pass rush, the Bears should win this game and cover the spread at home.
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