New England Patriots vs New York Jets Prediction & Best Bet - 12/28/2025
Updated December 26, 2025
Updated December 26, 2025
The New England Patriots head into their Week 17 AFC East matchup with the New York Jets on Sunday, holding a 12‑3 record and having clinched a playoff spot. The Patriots are heavily favored going into this matchup at MetLife Stadium and they are trying to keep pace with the Denver Broncos in the race for the top seed in the AFC. Here, I break down this matchup between division rivals and make my Patriots vs Jets prediction before Sunday.
Pick: | Over 42.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Drake Maye has cemented himself as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks this season, earning Pro Bowl recognition after passing for nearly 4,000 yards with 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions while completing over 70% of his passes.
The Jets’ quarterback situation is a mess going into this game. With Justin Fields done for the season, rookie Brady Cook will make his third start. Cook has struggled with turnovers and protection issues, with one touchdown to six interceptions in his starts.
Score Projection: Patriots 31 – Jets 17
Win Probability: Patriots 83%, Jets 17%
The Patriots should have no problem winning big against the Jets this week. But I like the idea of taking the over instead of laying double-digits with this big a favorite on the road in a division game. The Jets have been bad defensively and just good enough offensively to push a ton of games over the total. I think the same thing will happen in this contest.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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