Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Preview & Prediciton - 12/21/2025
Updated December 17, 2025
Updated December 17, 2025
The Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys will square off on Sunday in a Week 16 NFL contest that matters for playoff positioning for the Chargers and offers the Cowboys a chance to keep their faint postseason hopes alive. The Chargers (10‑4) enter this game on a three-game winning streak, capped by a gritty 16‑13 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs that eliminated the Chiefs from the playoff picture. Dallas (6‑7‑1) has struggled to consistently deliver wins despite boasting one of the NFL’s most productive offenses. Before kickoff from AT&T Stadium, continue reading to get my Chargers vs Cowboys prediction.
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Los Angeles has surged to a 10‑4 record on the strength of a defense that ranks near the top of the league in yards allowed and points allowed. That unit’s performance was on full display in Week 15 when the Chargers held the Chiefs to just 13 points en route to a road victory over their division rivals. Offensively, Los Angeles has been inconsistent, with quarterback Justin Herbert posting modest numbers relative to his career outputs while dealing with a broken hand. But the Chargers' defense has helped them to overcome any offensive issues they've had.
Dallas has a losing record going into Week 16, sitting at 6‑7‑1, but its offense is among the league’s most productive. Quarterback Dak Prescott is near the top of the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns. But Dallas’ defensive struggles, particularly against the pass, have to be addressed if the Cowboys want to keep their slim hopes of making the playoffs alive for another week.
Justin Herbert has battled through injuries and has a QB rating lower than his career average. He remains the catalyst for the Chargers’ offensive success when healthy. Herbert’s ability to complete passes down the field could be a major asset against a Cowboys defense that has been prone to giving up yardage in chunks.
For Dallas, Dak Prescott has thrown for nearly 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns this season, anchoring an offense that can move the ball efficiently through the air. Prescott’s command and chemistry with weapons like George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb allows Dallas to exploit mismatches vertically or over the middle. Dallas' running game is also impressive, with Javonte Williams eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark already this season.
Score Projection: Cowboys 27 – Chargers 23
Win Probability: Chargers 40%, Cowboys 60%
The Cowboys are in desperation mode, while the Chargers have more or less locked themselves into one of the top two Wild Card spots in the AFC. I may end up regretting this, but I'll take the Cowboys to get a win that they need to have in order to stay alive in the NFC, covering the spread as a slight favorite at home.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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