Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LVII ATS Pick (2/12/23)
Updated November 6, 2026
Updated November 6, 2026
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will meet in Super Bowl LVII on February 12, 2023, with both teams looking to finish outstanding seasons with a championship. Philadelphia enters as a slight favorite, but Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes, one of the league's most dangerous quarterbacks, leading its offense.
Our Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction examines the point spread, key matchups, and why we're backing Kansas City against the spread.
For additional analysis, visit our NFL picks and predictions.
Game details | Information |
|---|---|
Matchup | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles |
Date | Sunday, February 12, 2023 |
Kickoff | 6:30 p.m. ET |
Venue | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona |
Event | Super Bowl LVII |
Point spread | Chiefs +1 / Eagles -1 |
ATS.io pick | Kansas City Chiefs +1 |
The point spread reflects the original ATS.io selection published January 29, 2023. Sportsbook lines were subject to change before kickoff.
Kansas City and Philadelphia both finished the regular season with 14-3 records and secured the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences.
The Chiefs reached the Super Bowl after defeating the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, while the Eagles advanced with a convincing victory over the San Francisco 49ers.
Both teams have the talent to win, but the matchup presents several important questions.
Can Philadelphia's defensive front pressure Mahomes consistently? Will his injured ankle limit Kansas City's offense? And can Jalen Hurts deliver against a Chiefs defense that presents a different challenge than Philadelphia faced earlier in the playoffs?
The Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl after defeating the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.
Kansas City's offense has remained one of the NFL's most productive units, with Mahomes directing an attack capable of moving the ball through the air against almost any opponent.
However, his ankle injury is a significant concern entering the championship game.
Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during Kansas City's Divisional Round victory over Jacksonville.
He remained visibly limited against Cincinnati but still delivered an impressive performance, completing 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns.
Mahomes was less mobile than usual, but he compensated by making quick decisions and delivering accurate throws from the pocket.
His ability to perform under those circumstances was encouraging.
With two weeks between the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes has additional time to recover.
That could make a meaningful difference against Philadelphia's aggressive pass rush.
Kansas City's offensive line faces one of its toughest assignments of the season.
Philadelphia recorded 70 sacks during the regular season, the third-highest total in NFL history.
The Eagles have several defensive linemen capable of generating pressure, and their ability to rotate fresh pass rushers makes them particularly difficult to block.
For Kansas City, the priority will be keeping Mahomes comfortable enough to operate from the pocket.
The Chiefs don't necessarily need him to make spectacular plays outside the pocket.
Quick passes, effective protection, and the ability to move the chains consistently could be enough to challenge Philadelphia's defense.
The biggest argument for Kansas City is Mahomes himself.
Even while dealing with an ankle injury, he demonstrated against Cincinnati that he can produce against a strong defense.
The Chiefs also have extensive postseason experience under head coach Andy Reid.
Kansas City has reached three Super Bowls in four seasons, and Mahomes has repeatedly delivered in high-pressure situations.
Against a Philadelphia team that hasn't faced many comparable quarterback challenges in the playoffs, that experience could prove valuable.
The Eagles have been among the NFL's most complete teams throughout the 2022 season.
Philadelphia combines a productive rushing offense, an effective passing attack, and one of the league's most disruptive defensive fronts.
The Eagles earned the NFC's top seed and have been dominant through their first two playoff games.
However, the level of competition they faced in those games raises some questions entering Super Bowl LVII.
The Eagles opened the postseason with a 38-7 victory over the New York Giants.
They followed that performance with a 31-7 win against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Those results were impressive, but the circumstances deserve consideration.
New York entered the playoffs with a limited passing offense, while San Francisco lost quarterback Brock Purdy to an elbow injury during the NFC Championship Game.
Backup Josh Johnson also suffered a concussion, leaving the 49ers with virtually no functional passing attack for much of the contest.
Philadelphia deserves credit for taking advantage of those situations, but Kansas City's offense presents a substantially different challenge.
Jalen Hurts has enjoyed an excellent season and has played a major role in Philadelphia's success.
His combination of rushing ability, decision-making, and improved passing has made the Eagles' offense difficult to defend.
However, Hurts hasn't been required to produce much through the air during Philadelphia's two playoff victories.
He has thrown for a combined 275 yards against the Giants and 49ers.
That doesn't necessarily indicate a weakness. Philadelphia controlled both games and had little reason to take unnecessary risks.
Still, facing Mahomes and the Chiefs could require Hurts to make more plays as a passer.
If Kansas City can limit Philadelphia's rushing attack and force the Eagles into longer passing situations, Hurts may face a more demanding test.
The Eagles' greatest strength in this matchup could be their defensive line.
With 70 regular-season sacks, Philadelphia has demonstrated an ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks without relying exclusively on blitzes.
That is particularly important against Mahomes, who is dangerous when defenses leave openings elsewhere on the field.
If the Eagles generate pressure with four defenders, they can devote additional coverage resources to Kansas City's receivers and Travis Kelce.
Mahomes' mobility will also be worth monitoring.
A healthy Mahomes is difficult to contain because he can escape pressure and extend plays.
If his ankle limits those movements, Philadelphia's pass rush could become even more dangerous.
This is arguably the most important matchup in the game.
Philadelphia's defensive front has overwhelmed opponents throughout the season, but Mahomes is capable of making accurate throws even when the pocket becomes uncomfortable.
The Chiefs need to prevent consistent pressure up the middle and give Mahomes opportunities to find his receivers.
If Kansas City's offensive line holds up, the Chiefs have a strong chance of moving the ball effectively.
Hurts has not needed to carry Philadelphia's offense through the air during the playoffs.
That could change against Kansas City.
The Chiefs are capable of scoring quickly, and Philadelphia may need more production through the passing game if the contest becomes a shootout.
Hurts has the talent to respond, but this represents a more demanding quarterback matchup than the Eagles faced in their previous two games.
Super Bowl LVII features two teams with identical regular-season records.
The point spread of just one point reflects how closely matched they appear.
Kansas City has extensive experience in close postseason games, particularly with Mahomes and Reid leading the team.
Philadelphia has been dominant throughout the playoffs, but the Eagles haven't faced much late-game pressure in their two postseason victories.
If the Super Bowl remains close in the fourth quarter, Kansas City's experience could be an important advantage.
The Eagles have a strong case for winning Super Bowl LVII.
Their defense is outstanding, their offensive line is among the league's best, and Hurts provides a dual-threat dimension that Kansas City must account for.
However, Philadelphia's playoff performances have come against opponents that were unable to challenge its defense consistently.
The Chiefs are different.
Mahomes has the ability to make plays against elite defenses, and his performance against Cincinnati demonstrated that he can remain effective even when his mobility is compromised.
The additional recovery time before the Super Bowl is another reason to favor Kansas City.
Philadelphia's pass rush is a legitimate concern, but the Chiefs have the quarterback and offensive coaching to respond.
Meanwhile, Hurts may need to deliver a more productive passing performance than he has been asked to provide in the playoffs.
With the spread sitting at just one point, Kansas City is the more appealing selection.
→ Our Take: Kansas City Chiefs +1
The Chiefs have the edge at quarterback, and Mahomes' ability to perform under pressure makes Kansas City attractive as a slight underdog.
Philadelphia's defense will create problems, but the Eagles haven't faced a quarterback of Mahomes' caliber during their playoff run.
We expect Kansas City to remain competitive throughout the game and have a strong opportunity to win outright.
Official ATS.io Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +1
This is the original pregame selection published January 29, 2023, not a current betting recommendation.
For additional historical NFL analysis, visit our NFL matchup predictions and best NFL bets this week.
Super Bowl LVII was scheduled for Sunday, February 12, 2023, with kickoff at 6:30 p.m. ET.
The game was scheduled for State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Philadelphia was favored by one point according to the original ATS.io spread published January 29, 2023.
The original ATS.io selection was Kansas City Chiefs +1.
The prediction favored Kansas City because of Patrick Mahomes' experience, his ability to perform against strong defenses, and questions about the level of quarterback competition Philadelphia faced in the NFC playoffs.
Mahomes was recovering from a high ankle sprain suffered during Kansas City's Divisional Round victory over Jacksonville.
Updated November 6, 2026
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