Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears Prediction & Best Bet - 1/4/2026
Updated December 30, 2025
Updated December 30, 2025
The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears close out their 2025 NFL regular seasons against each other on Sunday afternoon. There are postseason implications for one team in this game, though it isn't the team we would have expected going into the year. Chicago enters as the NFC North champion with an 11-5 record, while Detroit limps in at 8-8 after missing the playoffs. Here, I break down this division rivalry game in Week 18 and make my Lions vs Bears prediction.
Pick: | Bears -3 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Chicago clinched the NFC North for the first time since 2018 and secured home-field advantage for the Wild Card round as it enters Week 18 with an 11-5 record. The Bears performed well overall under coach Ben Johnson, featuring a top-ten offense and a defense that led the league in takeaways. Caleb Williams grew into his role as the franchise quarterback this year and he is coming off a huge game despite a loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17. A win would lock the Bears into the second seed in the NFC, while a loss could drop them into third position.
Detroit’s season has concluded with inconsistency, as the Lions have lost three straight games and four of their last five. That run of poor play has seen their playoff hopes evaporate, leaving head coach Dan Campbell to evaluate their roster instead of getting ready for the playoffs. The Lions are not known to quit on Campbell and should play hard in this game, but there are questions about how good they are capable of being.
Jared Goff leads the Lions with 4,233 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions this season. Goff’s ability to distribute to playmakers like Amon-Ra St. Brown has kept Detroit competitive despite offensive line concerns.
Chicago's Caleb Williams has over 3,700 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in his second pro season. Williams has shown flashes of brilliance but also the growing pains typical of a young quarterback. In the Bears’ latest loss to the Niners, he passed for over 330 yards with two scores in a high-scoring game.
Score Projection: Detroit 24 – Chicago 28
Win Probability: Detroit 42%, Chicago 58%
This has the potential to be the most entertaining game in Week 18 of the NFL season, as it's one of the few games where both teams will be giving it their all. I'll lay the points with the Bears at home, as they should be able to lock up the second spot in the NFC heading into the postseason. But it wouldn't shock me at all to see the Lions win here either.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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