Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Wild Card Prediction & Odds - 1/11/2026
Updated January 4, 2026
Updated January 4, 2026
With the 2025 NFL regular season complete and Wild Card Weekend matchups set, the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars will meet in the first round of the playoffs at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. The Jags enter the playoffs after securing the AFC South with an eight-game winning streak to end the regular season. Buffalo enters as a battle-tested Wild Card team that is looking to spark a deep playoff run. Here, I break down this AFC Wild Card matchup and give you my Bills vs Jaguars prediction.
Pick: | Bills -1.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Bills -1.5 | Bills -120, Jaguars +100 | 50.5 |
Jacksonville closed the regular season with authority, routing Tennessee 41-7 to lock up the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence capped off a strong year by throwing for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game, finishing the regular season on a high note. The Jaguars offense ranked in the top 10 in yards per play and showed improved balance between the pass and the run with Travis Etienne, who surpassed 1,000 rushing yards.
Buffalo’s path was far less comfortable. The Bills finished 11-6 after playing multiple playoff-caliber opponents late in the season. Josh Allen dealt with a foot injury in Week 17 but avoided serious damage and is expected to be at full strength for the playoffs. Allen ended the regular season with over 4,000 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns. Without Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow to contend with, Allen and the Bills will hope that this is their year to get to a Super Bowl despite being a Wild Card team.
This game will hinge on the duel between Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. Allen remains one of the most aggressive quarterbacks in the NFL, capable of extending drives with his legs or attacking downfield off broken plays. His postseason experience is a clear advantage, as he has started multiple playoff games and owns a strong career playoff passer rating.
Lawrence continues to take steps forward as a franchise quarterback in Jacksonville. He improved his decision-making this season and showed better chemistry with his receivers. While Lawrence has fewer playoff starts, his experience in the college and pro playoffs and ability to process quickly give Jacksonville confidence he can deliver at home here.
Score Projection: Bills 27 – Jaguars 24
Win Probability: Bills 54%, Jaguars 46%
This should be a close game between two very good football teams. But I give a slight edge to the Bills in this contest, with the quarterback matchup being a big reason for that choice. Josh Allen has delivered time and time again in the postseason and until Trevor Lawrence outplays him, I have to believe that Allen will be the one leading his team into the second round.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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