The Buffalo Bills head to Houston to take on the Houston Texans in a Thursday Night Football matchup. Buffalo (7–3) has plenty of momentum after a 44–32 win over the Buccaneers, powered by a six-touchdown performance from Josh Allen. They will try to build on that against the Texans (4–5), who could be without franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud. Before kickoff from NRG Stadium, continue reading to get my Bills vs Texans prediction.
Our Bills vs Texans Pick
- Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 20, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
- Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
The biggest storyline here is the Texans’ defense. They’re arguably the best team in the league on defense right now. Houston’s pass rush is spearheaded by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, both of whom playing at a high level. Anderson is graded near the top of the league among edge defenders, and Hunter already has 9 sacks through 9 games. Their relentless pressure has defined Houston’s identity this season and they will need to generate more of that pressure against Josh Allen.
Allen is coming off one of the most electric games of his career, accounting for six total touchdowns (three passing, three rushing) in a big win over the Buccaneers last week. He’s at his best when given the freedom to move and create. He will likely need to improvise against the defense of the Texans here.
Houston is expected to be without C.J. Stroud, who remains in concussion protocol and has missed practices of late. Davis Mills will likely get the start if Stroud is unable to go. Mills has had moments, but he’s not Stroud, and this short week likely favors the more dynamic offense of the Bills
Quarterback Play
Buffalo: Josh Allen has been dominant this season. He’s thrown for 2,456 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions this season. He’s also a threat on the ground, with 351 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
Houston: Davis Mills should take the field with Stroud likely out. Mills needs to be a solid game manager for the Texans to have a shot in this game. As long as he can avoid turning the ball over, he can let his defense do the bulk of the work to win this game.
Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 5-5 against the spread so far this season.
- Houston is 4-6 against the spread going into this week.
- The Bills are 5-5 on over/unders entering Week 12.
- The Texans are 3-6-1 in the over/under market for the season.
Bills vs Texans Model Projection
Score Projection: Buffalo 28 – Houston 21
Win Probability: Buffalo 62%, Houston 38%
Final Thoughts
This is a game where Buffalo’s offense should have the edge. The Texans’ defense is elite, but if Mills struggles or can’t sustain long drives, the Bills can lean on their balanced attack and Allen’s dual-threat impact to win this game with some margin. I will lay the 5.5 points with the Bills in this game, with the expectation that the Texans offense will struggle.
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