Stephon Castle Projections, Prop Bets & Odds
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
Historical NBA player prop projections and betting odds for Stephon Castle against the Toronto Raptors, updated with the final results.
Stephon Castle entered the San Antonio Spurs' April 13, 2025 matchup against the Toronto Raptors with an expanded offensive role and several intriguing player prop markets.
The rookie guard had become an increasingly important part of San Antonio's offense, taking more shots and getting to the free-throw line more frequently during the final weeks of the regular season.
The original ATS.io projections anticipated 21.1 points and 1.9 made three-pointers against Toronto.
Sportsbooks listed Castle's points total around 20.5 to 21.5, while his three-point line stood at 1.5. Additional markets included assists, rebounds, and several combined statistical props.
Castle ultimately scored 20 points, grabbed eight rebounds, and recorded six assists as the Spurs defeated the Raptors 125–118.
This updated analysis preserves the original projections and sportsbook prices while examining Castle's performance, the factors behind each market, and the resulting bet settlements.
For current player prop analysis, visit ATS.io's NBA betting coverage.
Game information | Details |
|---|---|
Date | April 13, 2025 |
Matchup | Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs |
Venue | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio |
Final score | Spurs 125, Raptors 118 |
Castle's points | 20 |
Castle's rebounds | 8 |
Castle's assists | 6 |
Castle's made three-pointers | 1 |
Castle's minutes | 37:16 |
Original points projection | 21.1 |
Original three-pointers projection | 1.9 |
Castle started at guard and played more than 37 minutes.
His scoring total finished just 1.1 points below the original projection, while his rebounds exceeded the archived 5.5 line.
San Antonio overcame a 22-point deficit to win its final regular-season game.
The original ATS.io page displayed historical consensus odds alongside prices from FanDuel and Caesars.
The markets covered points, three-pointers, assists, rebounds, and several combined statistical totals.
Player prop | Consensus line | Over odds | Under odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Points | 21.5 | -111 | -122 |
Made three-pointers | 1.5 | -132 | -101 |
Assists | 6.5 | -126 | -105 |
Rebounds | 5.5 | -112 | -118 |
Points + assists | 27.5 | -122 | -108 |
Points + rebounds | 25.5 | -114 | -114 |
Points + rebounds + assists | 34.5 | -106 | -125 |
Rebounds + assists | 12.5 | -110 | -120 |
These are archived pregame odds from April 13, 2025. They are provided for historical reference and are no longer available for betting.
The lines reflected Castle's growing offensive responsibility.
His points total was above his season scoring average, suggesting that sportsbooks expected him to carry a significant offensive workload against Toronto.
The combined markets also reflected his ability to contribute as a rebounder and playmaker.
The original article showed several differences between the two sportsbooks.
Market | FanDuel | Caesars |
|---|---|---|
Points | Over 20.5 (-108), Under 20.5 (-122) | Over 21.5 (-117), Under 21.5 (-117) |
Made threes | Over 1.5 (-122), Under 1.5 (-108) | Over 1.5 (-148), Under 1.5 (+108) |
Assists | Over 7.5 (+110), Under 7.5 (-146) | Over 6.5 (-148), Under 6.5 (+108) |
Rebounds | Over 5.5 (+122), Under 5.5 (-162) | Not listed in original snapshot |
Points + assists | Over 27.5 (-122), Under 27.5 (-108) | Not listed in original snapshot |
Points + rebounds | Over 25.5 (-114), Under 25.5 (-114) | Not listed in original snapshot |
Points + rebounds + assists | Over 33.5 (-104), Under 33.5 (-128) | Not listed in original snapshot |
Rebounds + assists | Over 12.5 (-110), Under 12.5 (-120) | Not listed in original snapshot |
The difference between 20.5 and 21.5 points was particularly important.
Castle finished with exactly 20 points, meaning both unders won. However, a player scoring 21 would have produced different outcomes at the two sportsbooks.
The assists market also showed a full-assist difference between FanDuel and Caesars.
For player prop bettors, comparing lines can matter just as much as comparing the associated odds.
Original ATS.io projection: 21.1 points
The original page highlighted several factors supporting Castle's scoring potential.
His shot attempts had increased, his free-throw activity was rising, and the matchup was expected to feature a relatively fast pace.
However, his three-point shooting efficiency and Toronto's defensive tendencies presented concerns.
Sportsbook | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
Consensus | 21.5 (-111) | 21.5 (-122) |
FanDuel | 20.5 (-108) | 20.5 (-122) |
Caesars | 21.5 (-117) | 21.5 (-117) |
The model's 21.1-point projection fell between the two available lines.
Against a 21.5-point total, the projection leaned slightly toward the under.
Against 20.5, it leaned slightly toward the over.
Neither difference was large enough on its own to establish a strong betting advantage.
Increased shot volume
Castle had attempted 14.8 field goals per game over his previous ten games.
That was 2.7 more attempts per game than his season average.
Increased shot volume is one of the most important indicators for a scoring prop because it creates additional opportunities even when shooting efficiency remains unchanged.
Strong San Antonio home offense
The Spurs had averaged 118.4 points per home game over their previous 20 contests.
That ranked ninth in the NBA during the period covered by the original model.
A productive home offense could support Castle's scoring opportunities.
Faster recent pace
San Antonio had played at the ninth-fastest pace in the league over its previous ten games.
Toronto had played at the fastest road pace during its corresponding ten-game sample.
More possessions generally create more opportunities for shots, assists, and rebounds.
Increased free-throw attempts
Castle had attempted 7.2 free throws per game over his previous five games.
That was three more than his season average.
For a player whose perimeter shooting was inconsistent, increased trips to the foul line offered an important alternative scoring source.
Below-average three-point shooting
Castle had converted 26.7% of his three-point attempts during the season.
The original model placed him in the 23rd percentile among NBA players.
That limited his scoring efficiency from beyond the arc.
Toronto's defense against shooting guards
The original model noted that opposing starting shooting guards had averaged only 4.3 three-point attempts per game against Toronto in the referenced home-game split.
That suggested a potentially difficult matchup for Castle's perimeter scoring.
Limited offensive rebounding
San Antonio had averaged just nine offensive rebounds per game over its previous five games.
That ranked among the league's lowest totals during the sample.
Fewer offensive rebounds can reduce second-chance scoring opportunities.
Reduced free-throw opportunities for opposing guards
The original model also identified a recent trend in which starting shooting guards had attempted only 1.2 free throws per game against Toronto over ten games.
That conflicted with Castle's recent increase in foul-shot volume.
The competing trends made the scoring market particularly interesting.
Castle finished with 20 points.
His shooting line was:
His 16 field-goal attempts supported the original model's expectation of increased offensive involvement.
However, he converted only 31.3% of those attempts.
His perfect free-throw performance helped compensate for the inefficient shooting.
Betting results:
Market | Result |
|---|---|
Over 21.5 points | Lost |
Under 21.5 points | Won |
Over 20.5 points | Lost |
Under 20.5 points | Won |
The original projection missed Castle's actual total by just 1.1 points.
That was a relatively small projection error, although the result also demonstrates how a close estimate can still leave meaningful uncertainty around a betting line.
Original ATS.io projection: 1.9 made three-pointers
Castle's three-point prop was listed at 1.5.
The model projected him to make nearly two threes, but his season-long shooting percentage raised questions about the likelihood of reaching that mark.
Sportsbook | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
Consensus | -132 | -101 |
FanDuel | -122 | -108 |
Caesars | -148 | +108 |
The over was favored at each listed sportsbook.
Caesars offered the most expensive over price at -148, while FanDuel listed -122.
For a hypothetical $100 wager, the potential profit differed considerably.
At -122, a winning bet would generate approximately $81.97 in profit.
At -148, the same stake would generate approximately $67.57.
The difference highlights the importance of comparing sportsbook prices.
San Antonio's increased perimeter volume
The Spurs had ranked sixth in the NBA in three-point attempt aggressiveness over their previous five games, according to the original model.
That suggested a willingness to create additional perimeter opportunities.
Favorable pace environment
Both teams had played quickly in their recent samples.
More possessions could lead to additional three-point attempts.
Home-court advantage
Castle was playing in San Antonio.
The original model treated home court as a modest positive factor for overall statistical production.
Poor season-long accuracy
Castle's 26.7% three-point percentage was the most important concern.
A player shooting at that rate generally needs sufficient attempt volume to make multiple threes consistently.
Toronto's defensive tendencies
The original model identified Toronto as a difficult matchup for opposing starting shooting guards attempting three-pointers.
Limited second-chance opportunities
San Antonio's recent offensive rebounding struggles could reduce the number of extended possessions.
Castle attempted three three-pointers and made one.
His three-point shooting percentage for the game was 33.3%.
Although that exceeded his season-long percentage cited in the original preview, the limited number of attempts prevented him from reaching two made threes.
Betting results:
Market | Result |
|---|---|
Over 1.5 made threes | Lost |
Under 1.5 made threes | Won |
The model projected 1.9 made threes, compared with Castle's actual total of one.
The under was the winning side.
Castle's assists market was another notable part of the original sportsbook comparison.
The consensus line was 6.5 assists.
Caesars also listed 6.5, while FanDuel offered a higher line of 7.5.
Sportsbook | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
Consensus | 6.5 (-126) | 6.5 (-105) |
FanDuel | 7.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-146) |
Caesars | 6.5 (-148) | 6.5 (+108) |
The different lines reflected uncertainty surrounding Castle's playmaking production.
San Antonio's offensive structure included Chris Paul as an experienced primary facilitator.
However, Castle had opportunities to initiate possessions and create shots for teammates.
Castle finished with six assists.
He played 37 minutes and remained involved in San Antonio's offense throughout the game.
However, he finished below both the 6.5 and 7.5 lines.
Betting results:
The original archive did not include a specific assists projection or an official ATS.io recommendation for this market.
The archived consensus rebounds line was 5.5.
FanDuel offered the same threshold with different prices.
Sportsbook | Over 5.5 | Under 5.5 |
|---|---|---|
Consensus | -112 | -118 |
FanDuel | +122 | -162 |
The large difference between the consensus and FanDuel prices made this market particularly notable.
Castle's size and athleticism gave him the ability to contribute on the glass, especially when San Antonio used smaller lineups.
However, his rebounding opportunities also depended on the Spurs' frontcourt rotation and Toronto's shooting performance.
Castle collected eight rebounds.
Seven came on the defensive glass, with one offensive rebound.
He cleared the 5.5 line by 2.5 rebounds.
Betting results:
A hypothetical $100 winning wager at FanDuel's archived +122 price would have generated $122 in profit.
That was a considerably better return than the consensus -112 over price.
The original page also listed several combined statistical markets.
These included points and assists, points and rebounds, rebounds and assists, and points, rebounds, and assists.
Castle's final totals were:
Statistic | Actual result |
|---|---|
Points | 20 |
Rebounds | 8 |
Assists | 6 |
Points + assists | 26 |
Points + rebounds | 28 |
Rebounds + assists | 14 |
Points + rebounds + assists | 34 |
These totals determine the outcomes of the archived combined markets.
The consensus and FanDuel line was 27.5.
Castle finished with 26 combined points and assists.
Result: Under 27.5 won.
His 20 points and six assists left him 1.5 below the threshold.
The archived line was 25.5.
Castle finished with 28 combined points and rebounds.
Result: Over 25.5 won.
His eight rebounds helped compensate for finishing below his points projection.
The consensus and FanDuel line was 12.5.
Castle finished with 14 combined rebounds and assists.
Result: Over 12.5 won.
His eight rebounds and six assists pushed him above the threshold.
The original page showed two different PRA lines.
FanDuel listed 33.5, while the consensus line was 34.5.
Castle finished with 34 PRA.
That created different outcomes at the two thresholds.
Market | Actual PRA | Result |
|---|---|---|
Over 33.5 PRA | 34 | Won |
Under 33.5 PRA | 34 | Lost |
Over 34.5 PRA | 34 | Lost |
Under 34.5 PRA | 34 | Won |
This was the clearest example of why line shopping mattered in the original snapshot.
A bettor taking over 33.5 won, while a bettor taking over 34.5 lost.
The underlying player performance was identical.
The following table compares the archived consensus lines with Castle's actual performance.
Player prop | Historical line | Actual | Winning side |
|---|---|---|---|
Points | 21.5 | 20 | Under |
Made three-pointers | 1.5 | 1 | Under |
Assists | 6.5 | 6 | Under |
Rebounds | 5.5 | 8 | Over |
Points + assists | 27.5 | 26 | Under |
Points + rebounds | 25.5 | 28 | Over |
Rebounds + assists | 12.5 | 14 | Over |
Points + rebounds + assists | 34.5 | 34 | Under |
The table grades historical markets against the official game statistics. These results do not represent eight documented ATS.io betting selections.
Castle finished the regular-season finale with an impressive all-around statistical line.
Statistic | Total |
|---|---|
Minutes | 37:16 |
Points | 20 |
Rebounds | 8 |
Assists | 6 |
Field goals | 5-for-16 |
Field-goal percentage | 31.3% |
Three-pointers | 1-for-3 |
Three-point percentage | 33.3% |
Free throws | 9-for-9 |
Free-throw percentage | 100% |
Steals | 0 |
Blocks | 0 |
Turnovers | 4 |
Plus/minus | +2 |
His 20 points came despite inefficient shooting from the field.
The nine successful free throws were particularly important.
Without that production at the line, Castle would have finished considerably further below his original points projection.
His eight rebounds and six assists also demonstrated the versatility that made his combined statistical props interesting.
San Antonio entered the final day of the regular season looking to finish on a positive note.
Toronto built a substantial lead during the first half.
The Raptors scored 37 points in each of the opening two quarters and led 74–54 at halftime.
Their advantage eventually reached 22 points.
However, San Antonio responded with a dominant second-half performance.
The Spurs outscored Toronto 39–21 in the third quarter.
They then won the fourth quarter 32–23.
The comeback produced a 125–118 victory.
Keldon Johnson led San Antonio with 23 points.
Castle contributed 20 points, eight rebounds, and six assists.
Harrison Barnes added 18 points, while Chris Paul finished with 15 points and six assists.
Scottie Barnes led Toronto with 35 points.
Jamison Battle contributed 25 points, including seven made three-pointers.
Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Raptors | 37 | 37 | 21 | 23 | 118 |
San Antonio Spurs | 32 | 22 | 39 | 32 | 125 |
The game finished with 243 combined points.
That high-scoring environment was consistent with the original model's expectation of a relatively fast-paced matchup.
However, a productive team offense did not automatically translate into Castle exceeding every individual scoring line.
The original ATS.io projection of 21.1 points was close to Castle's actual total of 20.
Several factors explain the outcome.
Castle attempted 16 shots.
That was slightly above the 14.8 attempts per game cited in the original model's recent ten-game sample.
The expected opportunity was present.
Castle made five of those 16 attempts.
His 31.3% field-goal percentage prevented him from turning his shot volume into a larger scoring total.
This illustrates an important distinction between projecting opportunities and projecting successful outcomes.
Castle attempted nine free throws and made all nine.
That exceeded the recent 7.2-attempt average cited in the original preview.
The model correctly identified increased free-throw activity as a meaningful factor.
Castle made one three-pointer on three attempts.
His limited perimeter production contributed to the points under.
The Spurs received substantial offense from Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Chris Paul, Julian Champagnie, and their bench.
Castle remained a major contributor, but the scoring was distributed across the lineup.
The archived analysis identified several relevant trends.
Castle's 16 field-goal attempts confirmed that he was receiving significant offensive opportunities.
His nine attempts from the line reinforced the model's emphasis on increased foul-shot volume.
The Spurs scored 125 points, exceeding the 118.4-point home average cited in the original preview.
Castle finished only 1.1 points below the 21.1-point projection.
That was a strong numerical estimate for an individual scoring total.
The model projected 1.9 made threes.
Castle finished with one.
His limited three-point attempts and season-long shooting efficiency were important warning signs.
Castle grabbed eight rebounds, clearing the archived 5.5 line.
His rebounding performance was stronger than the market threshold suggested.
The PRA market was particularly sensitive to the line.
Castle's total of 34 cleared 33.5 but stayed below 34.5.
That illustrates the limits of treating a single projected number as a definitive betting recommendation.
Castle's April 13 performance offers several useful lessons about NBA player prop analysis.
The original model projected 21.1 points.
That figure was useful for comparing sportsbook lines, but it did not establish a strong advantage by itself.
A projection slightly above or below a line may be insufficient once the sportsbook's price and uncertainty are considered.
Castle finished with 34 PRA.
Over 33.5 won.
Over 34.5 lost.
The one-point difference between sportsbooks completely changed the outcome.
Castle played more than 37 minutes and attempted 16 field goals.
Those opportunities supported the original scoring projection.
However, shooting efficiency determined how many points he actually produced.
Castle's nine free throws contributed nearly half of his 20 points.
His recent increase in attempts was a meaningful factor in the original analysis.
Castle finished below his points and assists lines but above his rebounds line.
As a result, his points-and-rebounds over won while his points-and-assists over lost.
Each combined market requires its own analysis.
For additional basketball betting coverage, see ATS.io's NBA picks and predictions and the NBA matchup center.
Castle scored 20 points against the Toronto Raptors.
The archived model projected 21.1 points.
No. He finished with 20, so under 21.5 won.
No. Under 20.5 also won.
He made one three-pointer on three attempts.
The model projected 1.9 made three-pointers.
No. Under 1.5 won.
He recorded eight rebounds.
Yes. He exceeded the line by 2.5 rebounds.
He finished with six assists.
No. Under 6.5 won.
He finished with 26 combined points and assists.
No. Under 27.5 won.
He finished with 28.
Yes.
He recorded 14 combined rebounds and assists.
Yes.
He finished with 34 points, rebounds, and assists.
Yes. His 34 PRA cleared the line.
No. Under 34.5 won.
San Antonio won 125–118.
He played 37 minutes and 16 seconds.
The supplied archived page contained model projections, statistical trends, and sportsbook odds. It did not identify a confirmed official betting selection.
Castle finished the Spurs' 125–118 victory with 20 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and one made three-pointer.
His scoring total came close to the original 21.1-point projection, but the 21.5 and 20.5 points unders were the winning outcomes.
The under 1.5 made three-pointers also won.
His rebounding performance exceeded expectations relative to the archived 5.5 line, helping the points-and-rebounds and rebounds-and-assists overs cash.
The most revealing market was PRA.
Castle finished with exactly 34, meaning over 33.5 won while over 34.5 lost.
→ Our Take: The original points projection captured Castle's offensive role accurately, particularly his increased shot volume and free-throw activity. His shooting efficiency prevented him from reaching the posted points totals, while his rebounding production created opportunities in the combined markets. The clearest lesson from this matchup is the value of comparing sportsbook lines: Castle's 34 PRA was a winning over at 33.5 and a losing over at 34.5, despite the same underlying performance.
