The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will meet in Western Conference action on Monday night in the NBA. The defending champion Thunder are 3-0 to start the season and they will try to stay undefeated against a Mavericks team that is on the second night of a back-to-back. Before tip-off from Dallas, continue reading to get my Thunder vs Mavericks prediction.
Our Thunder vs Mavericks Pick
- Pick: Dallas Mavericks +8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
- Date & Time: Monday, October 27, 2025, 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
- Thunder's Unbeaten Start: Oklahoma City enters this game with a perfect 3-0 record, with strong performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a league-best 40 points per game. Holmgren is contributing 24.7 points and 10 rebounds per game. Holmgren is questionable for this game and his ability to play in this game will have a huge impact on how the game goes.
- Mavericks' Recent Victory: Dallas secured their first win of the season with a 139-129 victory over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. Anthony Davis led the team with 25 points and 10 rebounds, while rookie Cooper Flagg scored 22 points. Despite the win, the Mavericks' defense remains a concern, allowing 129 points to the Raptors. Dallas has failed to hold a team under 115 points in a game this season and will try to change that against the best team in the league tonight.
- Injury Report: Both teams are missing key players going into this game. Kyrie Irving is out for Dallas, while Dante Exum and Daniel Gafford are questionable. OKC is without Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso, while Chet Holmgren is questionable to compete.
- Rest Situation: The Mavericks are playing on the second night of a back-to-back here. That could cause problems against a Thunder team that last played on Saturday.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Recent Meetings: The Mavericks won three of the four games these teams played in the regular season last year. This is their first meeting of this season.
- Against the Spread (ATS): Both of these teams are 1-2 against the spread this season.
- Over/Under Trends: OKC has seen two of their first three games go over their totals this season. Two of Dallas' first three games have stayed under their totals.
- Home/Road Splits: The Thunder are 2-0 on the road this year. Dallas is 1-2 on their home floor.
Best Player Props to Watch
Player | Prop |
|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 32.5 Points |
Anthony Davis | Over 24.5 Points |
Cooper Flagg | Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made |
Thunder vs Mavericks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Oklahoma City Thunder 118 – Dallas Mavericks 112
- Win Probability: Oklahoma City 74%, Dallas 26%
Final Thoughts
The Thunder are expected to win on the road against a Mavericks team that is playing for the second day in a row. But I am going to take the points with the Mavs here even with a rest disadvantage to contend with. Bettors may want to wait on confirmation of Chet Holmgren's status before locking in any wagers here. But I think the Mavs keep this one close enough to cover the spread.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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