The Houston Rockets travel to San Antonio on Sunday night for another chapter in a long-running Texas rivalry. Both teams have enjoyed strong stretches during the 2025 to 2026 season, with both sitting in the top three in the Western Conference standings. But only one of them can come away with a win here. Who will that be? Continue reading to get my Rockets vs Spurs prediction and find out.
Our Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs Pick
Pick: Houston Rockets +5.5
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
- Date & Time: Sunday, March 8, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
- Broadcast: NBC
Key Storylines
San Antonio enters this contest playing its best basketball of the season. The Spurs have turned into one of the hottest teams in the league, winning three straight games and nine of their last 10, powered by efficient offense and a defense anchored by franchise centerpiece Victor Wembanyama in the paint. Their recent comeback victory against the Clippers highlighted the team’s confidence and ability to close games late.
Houston, meanwhile, continues to build around a skilled core led by Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. The Rockets bring one of the strongest rebounding groups in the NBA and use that edge to generate extra scoring chances. Their ability to dominate the glass could play a major role against a Spurs team that relies heavily on efficiency and shot-making.
Another angle to watch is the tempo. Houston often thrives in half-court possessions where Sengun can facilitate and Durant can attack mismatches, while San Antonio has excelled when its guards push the pace and create early scoring chances.
Key Players
San Antonio Spurs
- Victor Wembanyama – The young star remains the centerpiece of San Antonio’s rise. Wembanyama contributes elite scoring, rim protection, and rebounding. His presence changes the game defensively and he recently produced a 27-point and 10-rebound outing with four blocks in a comeback victory.
- De’Aaron Fox – Fox provides speed and scoring in the backcourt while also leading the offense as a distributor. His ability to push the ball and create drives places constant pressure on opposing defenses.
- Devin Vassell – Vassell supplies perimeter shooting and consistent scoring on the wing. His outside accuracy opens the floor for Wembanyama and Fox to operate inside.
Houston Rockets
- Kevin Durant – Durant remains one of the league’s most reliable scorers. With a scoring line often around the mid 20s per game, he provides Houston with a late-game option capable of creating shots in isolation.
- Alperen Sengun – Sengun is the engine of Houston’s interior offense. He scores efficiently in the post while adding strong rebounding numbers and elite passing from the center position.
- Amen Thompson – Thompson contributes across the stat sheet with scoring, rebounding, and defense. His athletic ability gives Houston an additional playmaker who can attack the rim.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Houston Rockets | San Antonio Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 114.5 | 118.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 109.3 | 111.4 |
| Team Field Goal % | 48% | 48% |
| Rebounds per game | 48.4 | 46.6 |
| Assists per game | 24.7 | 27.1 |
Head to Head & Betting Trends
- San Antonio leads the season series 2-1.
- Home teams are 2-1 in games between these teams this season.
- San Antonio is 35-27-2 against the spread this season.
- Houston is 28-34 against the spread this year.
Rockets vs Spurs Model Projection
Score Projection: Houston Rockets 114 – San Antonio Spurs 116
Win Probability: Houston Rockets 46%, San Antonio Spurs 54%
Final Thoughts
San Antonio deserves its favorite status given its impressive record and dominant recent run. The Spurs also benefit from home court, where their offense has produced consistent results. Still, Houston’s rebounding advantage and the scoring ability of Durant and Sengun give the Rockets a clear path to keep this contest close. With the spread sitting around two possessions, the value leans toward Houston to stay within the number as far as I’m concerned.
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