The final Western Conference play-in spot comes down to a showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns on Friday night. Golden State kept its season alive with a dramatic comeback win over the Clippers, fueled by a vintage scoring night from Stephen Curry and timely shooting late in the fourth quarter. Phoenix enters this game after a home loss to Portland that denied them the 7 seed, leaving them with one more chance on their home floor. Here, I break down this matchup and make my Warriors vs Suns prediction in the final game of the 2026 play-in tournament.
Warriors vs Suns Pick
- Pick: Warriors Moneyline (+125)
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
- Date & Time: Friday, April 17, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
Golden State enters this game with renewed belief after eliminating the Clippers despite trailing late. The return of Stephen Curry has changed the outlook of this roster, as his scoring opens opportunities for role players like Gui Santos and Kristaps Porzingis. However, the Warriors remain a below .500 team overall and have struggled with consistency, especially on the road.
Phoenix faces a different type of pressure. After letting a double-digit lead slip away against Portland, the Suns must regroup quickly. The advantage for Phoenix lies in playing at home, where they have been significantly stronger this season. The Suns also carry the benefit of rest compared to a Warriors squad coming off an emotional win just two days earlier. But Phoenix has a lot to prove if they want to reach the playoffs and face the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Key Players
- Phoenix Suns
- Devin Booker leads the offense and remains the focal point in elimination games, averaging over 26 points per game this season while handling heavy usage in late-game situations.
- Jalen Green had a huge game against the Trail Blazers on Tuesday night and will need to have another big game to help Booker and get the Suns to the playoffs.
- Golden State Warriors
- Stephen Curry is coming off a 35-point performance in the previous play-in game and remains one of the most dangerous scorers in the league, averaging around 28 points per game.
- Kristaps Porzingis has added frontcourt scoring and rim protection, contributing 20 points in the last outing and providing spacing with his shooting.
- Draymond Green anchors the defense and facilitates offense, contributing rebounds, assists, and defensive pressure that can disrupt Phoenix’s rhythm.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Warriors | Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 114.6 | 112.6 |
| Team Field Goal % | 46% | 46% |
| Rebounds per game | 42.3 | 43.1 |
| Assists per game | 28.9 | 24.6 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Golden State is 3-1 against the Suns this season.
- Phoenix is 47-36 against the spread going into the final game of the play-in tournament.
- Golden State is 36-47 against the spread entering this matchup.
Warriors vs Suns Model Projection
- Score Projection: Warriors 112 – Suns 110
- Win Probability: Warriors 51%, Suns 49%
This game sets up as a tight contest where shot-making in the final minutes will decide the outcome. Golden State has the best player on the floor in Stephen Curry, and his ability to create offense from anywhere keeps the Warriors within reach, regardless of opponent. Phoenix is at home, but they just gave up over 40 points to Deni Avdija with a playoff spot on the line. I can only imagine what Curry is going to do to them, and I’ll take the Warriors to sneak into the playoffs by winning as an underdog here.
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