The Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder are set for a high-stakes Sunday afternoon clash in the NBA at Paycom Center. This game pits one of the Eastern Conference’s most dynamic offenses against a Western Conference leader that has been forced to adapt without two of its biggest stars. Before this game tips off from OKC, I've made my Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction for this game below.
Our Cavaliers vs Thunder Pick
Pick: Cavaliers -2.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date & Time: Sunday, February 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
- The Thunder enter this game dealing with significant absences as reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and key forward Jalen Williams are both out due to injury, weakening Oklahoma City's usual offensive excellence. Their absences shift responsibilities onto role players and Chet Holmgren.
- The Cavaliers are riding momentum after extending their win streak to seven games in a row, including a dominant recent victory over the Brooklyn Nets. With their backcourt running efficiently and interior presence contributing consistently, Cleveland looks to exploit the Thunder’s depleted rotation and capture a key road victory.
- This is a rematch of a January 19 game where the Thunder routed the Cavaliers by a large margin, but the context has changed significantly with the Thunder missing star players this time around.
Key Players
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Donovan Mitchell: Averaging around 28.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game, Mitchell remains Cleveland’s primary playmaker and scorer. His ability to create an efficient offense will be crucial against Oklahoma City’s defense.
- James Harden: Contributing approximately 24.7 points and 8.2 assists per outing, Harden’s dual threat as a scorer and facilitator complements Mitchell and helps balance Cleveland’s offensive load. He has the potential to be one of the best trade deadline acquisitions in the NBA.
- Jarrett Allen: A strong presence in the paint, Allen averages near 14.9 points and 8.4 rebounds, anchoring the Cavaliers’ interior defense and providing second-chance opportunities on the glass.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Chet Holmgren: With the Thunder’s stars out, Holmgren’s role becomes even more significant. He typically posts averages in the vicinity of 8.6 rebounds and contributes defensively with blocks and versatile scoring around the rim.
- Jared McCain: Recently stepped in with a big scoring night off the bench, demonstrating the type of production Oklahoma City needs from its supporting cast with stars unavailable.
- Lu Dort: Known for his gritty defense and spot-up shooting, Dort will be a key glue piece if the Thunder hopes to contain Cleveland’s backcourt threats.
Stat Comparison
Statistic | Cavaliers | Thunder |
|---|
Points per Game | 119.8 | 119.4 |
Points Allowed per Game | 115.3 | 107.6 |
Team Field Goal % | 48% | 49% |
Rebounds per Game | 44.7 | 43.7 |
Assists per Game | 28.5 | 25.4 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- OKC got a blowout win over Cleveland in their first matchup this season.
- OKC is 28-29 against the spread this season.
- Cleveland is 24-33 against the spread going into Sunday afternoon.
Cavaliers vs Thunder Model Projection
Score Projection: Cavaliers 118 – Thunder 112 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Cavaliers 58%, Thunder 42% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
I'm going with Cleveland to win this contest on the road and to cover the spread as a slight favorite. If both teams were healthy, OKC would likely run away with this one, but the absence of SGA and Williams should prevent them from playing to their full potential in this inter-conference matchup in the NBA.
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