Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell Prediction - 9/27/2025
Updated September 26, 2025
Updated September 26, 2025
Tom Nolan will face Charlie Campbell on Saturday’s UFC card in Perth. This lightweight tilt could tell us a lot about the future of the 155 lbs division. Both fighters come into this matchup on three-fight winning streaks and will look to stay hot with a win in this matchup. Before this fight from Australia, continue reading to get my Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell prediction.
Tom Nolan | Charlie Campbell | |
|---|---|---|
Age | 25 | 30 |
Height | 6′3″ | 6′0″ |
Reach | 73″ | 72.5″ |
Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
Professional Record | 9-1-0 | 9-2-0 |
Nolan’s size and length will be his biggest assets in this fight. At 6′3″, he will try to keep Campbell at bay with his jab and angles from his southpaw stance. His volume is solid for this level of competition and he is capable of going for submissions when the opportunity presents itself. But his striking defense numbers imply that he can be vulnerable to counters.
Campbell is a cleaner striker. His accuracy and defensive metrics give him an edge in exchanges if he can force Nolan to commit first. He also has a far more active wrestling base, averaging nearly three attempts per 15 minutes. That gives Campbell a realistic path to take the fight to the ground or at least mix in clinch control to prevent Nolan from staying purely in range striking.
A key factor will be how well Nolan defends takedowns under pressure. His 66% takedown defense is middling, which means Campbell’s wrestling could really make life difficult for Nolan. If Campbell can drag portions of this fight to the mat or control clinch time, he can neutralize some of Nolan’s length advantages.
At first glance, Campbell seems more complete. But Nolan’s length and wrestling threat give him a very real chance to win this fight. Given the available paths to victory, I lean toward Nolan to pick up a win on home soil. I expect this fight to be competitive and possibly go the distance, but Nolan’s edge in striking volume and his versatility gives him the slight advantage. If Campbell fails to consistently implement wrestling or get Nolan off his game, Nolan should take rounds on the feet and avoid crises in the scrambles.
Thus, I predict Tom Nolan by decision as the most likely outcome. But I also acknowledge the possibility of a late stoppage via submission or strikes if Campbell overextends himself with his striking.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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