Updated August 28, 2026
Rei Tsuruya and Kevin Borjas meet in a flyweight preliminary bout at UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Both men arrive after important wins, but they took very different routes to get there. Tsuruya returned from his first professional defeat with a quick submission, while Borjas revived his UFC run by upsetting Andre Lima over 3 rounds. Polymarket currently prices Tsuruya at 87¢ and Borjas at 13¢. Here, we break down that pricing and make our prediction before fight night.
Tsuruya is the clear pick, although his 87¢ price in the Polymarket prediction markets leaves less room for error than his advantages might initially suggest. His fastest route to victory is a submission, particularly if he can force Borjas to defend several takedown attempts in succession. Borjas may stop the first entry, but Tsuruya is comfortable switching attacks, climbing onto the back and continuing to work after an opponent returns to his feet.
Statistic | Rei Tsuruya | Kevin Borjas |
|---|---|---|
Age | 24 | 28 |
Height | 5 feet, 6 inches | 5 feet, 5 inches |
Reach | 68 inches | 68 inches |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 11-1 | 11-5 |
Tsuruya’s style is built around movement, unusual entry angles, and persistent wrestling. His striking is primarily a means of reaching the clinch or persuading an opponent to plant his feet. Once he gets contact, he mixes conventional double-leg attempts with trips, body locks, and scrambles that allow him to attack the back.
The 24-year-old averages 5.03 takedowns per 15 minutes in his recorded UFC competition. He lands 2.40 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy while absorbing 1.91. Those numbers reflect his preference for grappling rather than prolonged exchanges at range. They also show why Borjas will have trouble generating the striking volume he needs if Tsuruya controls where the fight takes place.
Tsuruya’s only professional loss came against Joshua Van by unanimous decision in March 2025. He completed 4 of 21 takedown attempts but could not keep Van down consistently, allowing the elite flyweight to pull away with cleaner boxing.
Borjas has recorded 8 knockouts among his 11 victories and prefers to fight at striking range. He lands 3.87 significant strikes per minute with 42% accuracy, but he absorbs 5.27 per minute and owns a 50% significant-strike defense rate. That negative striking differential is dangerous against top-level opposition, even if Tsuruya is unlikely to match the output of Borjas’ more aggressive opponents.
Borjas earned his biggest UFC victory in June 2026, defeating the previously unbeaten Andre Lima by unanimous decision. All 3 judges scored the fight for Borjas, who stayed composed and matched Lima at 51 significant strikes landed. That performance was especially surprising because Borjas had lost consecutive fights to Sumudaerji and Imanol Rodriguez. Rodriguez stopped him with punches late in Round 2, while Sumudaerji controlled a largely one-sided decision.
There is also some uncertainty surrounding Borjas’ preparation. He weighed 129 pounds for the Lima fight, missing the flyweight limit by 3 pounds before producing his upset. His size and physical strength may have assisted him that night. He now returns only 10 weeks later for a matchup that requires him to defend sustained grappling pressure.
Borjas has enough power and experience to punish a reckless entry, but he needs a near-perfect defensive performance to keep this contest standing. Tsuruya should eventually connect his wrestling attempts, advance to the back, and find a finish after Borjas has spent time carrying his weight. My prediction is Rei Tsuruya by submission in Round 2.