Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas Prediction & Preview - 8/29/2026
Updated August 28, 2026
Updated August 28, 2026
Bilal Hasan and Nilson Rojas will put matching 9-0 records on the line in a flyweight bout at UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Hasan arrives only 18 days after earning his contract with a 45-second stoppage on Dana White’s Contender Series, while Rojas enters after going three rounds in Peru on July 22. Polymarket currently prices Hasan at 86¢ and Rojas at 14¢, giving Hasan an 86% implied win probability in China.
The 86¢ price at Polymarket is not cheap, but it leaves an opening from a value standpoint. My projection makes Hasan an 89% favorite, producing a 3% edge. That is enough to support Hasan at the current price, though the prediction loses much of its appeal above 88¢. Polymarket had recorded approximately $2,500 in volume at the time of review, so traders should account for possible price movement in a relatively small market.
Statistic | Bilal Hasan | Nilson Rojas |
|---|---|---|
Age | 25 | 27 |
Height | 5-foot-7 | 5-foot-5 |
Reach | 70 inches | 63 inches |
Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
Record | 9-0, 1 NC | 9-0 |
Hasan has quickly become one of the more interesting new names at 125 pounds. His professional record includes seven knockout victories, one submission and one decision, giving him an 89% finishing rate across his nine wins. He also won and successfully defended the Cage Fury Fighting Championships flyweight title three times before appearing on Contender Series.
His latest performance required only 45 seconds. Hasan opened with side kicks and low kicks against Mridul Saikia, then punished a poorly set-up calf kick with a straight right hand. Saikia fell, Hasan followed with punches, and the referee stopped the contest. He can draw an opponent into range, read the entry, and counter with enough accuracy to end the fight.
The Saikia result was not an isolated early finish. Hasan stopped Renaldy Manse in the opening round in December 2025, finished Jason Eastman in the fourth round of a championship fight in June 2025, and knocked out Brian Hauser with a body shot in the second round earlier that year. His rear-naked-choke victory over Jose Leon also confirmed that opponents cannot treat him as a pure kickboxer.
Hasan’s switch stance and active kicking game should be central to this matchup. He changes looks, attacks the legs and body, and uses long kicks to make opponents cover distance before they can establish their boxing. At 5-foot-7 with a 70-inch reach, he owns a clear height advantage over the 5-foot-5 Rojas. That extra range should help Hasan dictate where the exchanges begin.
Seven of Rojas' nine victories have come by knockout or technical knockout, including finishes produced by punches, ground strikes, an overhand and a flying knee. He is an aggressive orthodox striker who can generate power in short exchanges. Rojas has won four of his past five appearances by stoppage, with the exception being his unanimous-decision victory over unbeaten Gonzalo Hanampa on July 22.
That decision may prove useful because it gave Rojas 15 minutes of recent work. It also showed that he can maintain his offense when an opponent survives the early attack. Still, his prior opposition raises questions. Before Hanampa, Rojas stopped Wallafy Fernandes, who carried a losing professional record. This should be a step up in level of competition and a big test for the Chilean.
Rojas’ best route is to pressure Hasan before the favorite settles into rhythm. He needs to cut off the cage, attack during stance switches, and turn the bout into short boxing exchanges. If he follows Hasan in straight lines, however, he will be vulnerable to front kicks, counter rights, and knees. Rojas also tends to load up on his power shots, which can leave openings after the first punch.
The main concern with Hasan is the exceptionally quick turnaround. Fighting in Shanghai only 18 days after competing in Las Vegas is unusual, even though the Saikia contest lasted less than one minute and Hasan absorbed little visible damage. Travel, another weight cut, and a compressed preparation window add variables that would not exist under normal scheduling.
Those factors keep our model from pushing Hasan above 90%. Even so, his superior range, deeper set of tools, and stronger recent competition make him the clear selection. My official prediction is Bilal Hasan to win, with a stoppage during the first 2 rounds being the most likely form of victory.
