Updated September 29, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market moves.
The Braves enter Game 1 as 64¢ favorites on Polymarket, compared to 37¢ for the Phillies. The total is set at 6.5 runs, with the Over trading at 52¢ and the Under at 48.5¢.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves open their NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday, September 29, with a trip to the NLDS on the line. Beyond the full-game matchup, there are several interesting player props worth looking at in Game 1.
We've narrowed it down to three Phillies vs Braves player prop predictions, with our ATS Quantitative Model finding value on Chris Sale, Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber. Below, we'll break down each of these MLB predictions, the stats behind them and where we see an edge at the current Polymarket prices.
Sale Has Been Racking Up Strikeouts Lately
Sale finished the regular season with 200 strikeouts and a 30.9% strikeout rate. He also struck out 10 Reds over just 5⅔ innings in his final start on September 23, showing he's still missing plenty of bats heading into the playoffs.
Several Phillies Hitters Have Struggled Against Sale
Sale recorded 29 strikeouts over 26 innings in four starts against Philadelphia this season. He's also had success against some of the Phillies' biggest bats, including Bryce Harper (11 strikeouts in 21 at-bats), Kyle Schwarber (10 in 25) and J.T. Realmuto (seven in 18).
A Rested Sale Could Get a Longer Leash in Game 1
Sale enters Tuesday on five days of rest after throwing 97 pitches in his last start. With Atlanta opening a best-of-three series at home, the Braves should be willing to let him work deep into the game if he's effective, giving him plenty of opportunities to reach eight strikeouts.
Recommended Prediction:
Chris Sale 8+ Ks
Current Market Price:
46¢
Model Win Probability:
50.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
46.0%
Model Edge:
+4.1%
Buy Up To:
49¢
Model Trade Confidence:
71/100
Bohm Has Hit Left-Handed Pitching Well
Bohm hit .294 with an .821 OPS against lefties this season, compared to .234 with a .655 OPS against righties. He also drove in 38 runs in 191 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, which is encouraging heading into his matchup with Chris Sale.
He's Had Some Success Against Sale
Bohm went 3-for-10 (.300) with a double and a home run against Sale this season. He also owns a .304 career average against Atlanta's ace, giving us another reason to like his chances of contributing in Game 1.
Bohm Has Been Much Better in the Second Half
After hitting just .215 before the All-Star break, Bohm batted .312 with a .379 OBP in the second half. He also recorded 22 hits and 12 RBIs in September, giving him several ways to reach two combined hits, runs and RBIs without needing a huge game.
Recommended Prediction:
Bohm O1.5 H+R+RBI
Current Market Price:
46¢
Model Over Probability:
50.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
46.0%
Model Edge:
+4.5%
Buy Up To:
49¢
Model Trade Confidence:
73/100
Schwarber Has Already Taken Sale Deep Twice
Schwarber is just 5-for-25 (.200) in his career against Chris Sale, but two of those five hits have been home runs. He also homered off him at Truist Park earlier this season, so he's already shown he can take Atlanta's ace deep.
He's Still Dangerous Against Left-Handed Pitching
Schwarber hit 15 of his 45 home runs against left-handed pitching this season, batting .260 with a .516 slugging percentage. Even against a pitcher like Sale, he has enough power to change the game with one swing.
More Opportunities From the Leadoff Spot
Schwarber's spot at the top of Philadelphia's lineup should give him multiple chances against Sale and potentially another plate appearance against Atlanta's bullpen. Those extra opportunities matter for a home run prediction, especially if he gets a more favorable matchup later in the game.
Recommended Prediction:
Schwarber to Hit a HR
Current Market Price:
20¢
Model HR Probability:
23.9%
Market-Implied Probability:
20.0%
Model Edge:
+3.9%
Buy Up To:
23¢
Model Trade Confidence:
69/100
That pricing points to a relatively low-scoring game, which fits our Chris Sale strikeout prediction if he's able to work deep into the matchup. If Sale is missing bats early and keeping Philadelphia's offense in check, he should have a chance to pitch deep enough to reach eight strikeouts.
On the other side, that could make things a bit more difficult for Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber. However, Bohm has had success against Sale in the past, while Schwarber has already taken him deep twice. Both could also benefit if Philadelphia gets into Atlanta's bullpen, where they may see more favorable matchups later in the game.
For a closer look at the matchup, including our projected winner and full-game analysis, check out our Phillies vs Braves Game 1 prediction. We also have a full Phillies vs Braves series preview if you're looking for a more complete breakdown of the best-of-three matchup and how we see the series playing out.
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