Updated September 11, 2026
The New York Mets and New York Yankees open the latest edition of the Subway Series on Friday, September 11, with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Nolan McLean (11-8, 3.06 ERA) gets the start for the Mets against Carlos Rodón (5-3, 3.09 ERA).
The Yankees are getting healthy at the right time and still have their sights set on the AL East crown and a first-round bye. The Mets are essentially out of the playoff race, but they've quietly been one of baseball's hottest teams since the trade deadline and would love nothing more than to play spoiler against their crosstown rival.
Let's get into our Mets vs Yankees prediction and where we see the best value in Friday night's matchup.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The Yankees scored a ton of runs against Colorado, but I’m not putting too much stock into that against a Rockies pitching staff that ranks last in baseball in both ERA and WHIP. This is a completely different matchup with Nolan McLean on the mound, and Carlos Rodón has been excellent since coming back from injury. Throw in the Yankees' league-best bullpen, and I think there's a very good chance these teams stay under 8.5 runs on Friday night.”
Under 8.5 Total Runs Is Priced Around 53¢
Polymarket currently has under 8.5 priced around 53¢. Our model originally gives under 8 a 59% chance of hitting, so getting the extra half-run at 8.5 makes the current price even more appealing. The model projects a 4-3 Yankees win and just seven total runs.
Both Starting Pitchers Are in Great Form
Rodón has looked sharp since returning from injury, posting roughly a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across his last four starts. McLean has been even better lately, allowing just four earned runs across 31 innings in his last five starts and giving up two or fewer hits in three of them. If both starters carry that form into Friday night, runs could be hard to come by. The Yankees also have an MLB-best 3.03 bullpen ERA across 519 innings this season, and their top relievers should be relatively fresh after a series against Colorado that didn't require much high-leverage work.
Recommended Prediction:
Under 8.5 Total Runs
Current Market Price:
53¢
Model Win Probability:
59%+
Market-Implied Probability:
53%
Model Edge:
6%+
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Trade Confidence:
80/100
Nolan McLean will get his first taste of the Subway Series on Friday night, and the 25-year-old has quickly emerged as the ace of the Mets' rotation. He's 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 179 strikeouts across 161.2 innings this season.
Control has been one of the few concerns for McLean. He's issued 65 walks and has walked at least three batters in five of his last six starts, but that hasn't stopped him from putting together back-to-back excellent months. McLean posted a 1.78 ERA in July followed by a 2.10 ERA in August.
The Yankees will also be seeing McLean for the first time, which could work in his favor early. New York has been much less dangerous against right-handed pitching this season, posting a 100 wRC+ compared to 106 against lefties, and that gives McLean a good chance to continue his recent run of success.
The Yankees finally have their captain back. Aaron Judge returned Tuesday after missing 84 games with a stress fracture in his right rib. He went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts in his first game back, but looked much better the following night, going 2-for-4 with two singles and a run scored.
Judge also makes a Yankees lineup that's finally getting healthy much more dangerous. First-time All-Star Ben Rice has broken out with a .256 average, 36 home runs, 88 RBIs and an .866 OPS, while Cody Bellinger is back after missing about a month with a hamstring injury. He's hitting .266 with 13 home runs, 64 RBIs and a .768 OPS this season.
With Judge and Bellinger back alongside Rice, the Yankees are finally getting healthy at the right time as they gear up for the postseason and another potential World Series run.
It's been a strange season for the Mets. They started 10-21, the worst record in baseball at the time, and eventually fired manager Carlos Mendoza after falling to 34-48. That's certainly not what anyone expected from a team that entered the year with MLB's highest Opening Day payroll, according to Statista.
The Mets have turned things around since the August 3 trade deadline, though, going 21-12 for the second-best record in baseball over that stretch. They've finally started playing more like the team many expected to see coming into the season.
Unfortunately, it looks like the turnaround came too late. The Mets are still 10 games behind San Diego for the final NL Wild Card spot with only 16 games remaining. At this point, they're mostly playing for pride, but they'd love nothing more than to hurt the Yankees' chances of winning the AL East while taking another Subway Series from their crosstown rival.
For more picks as the playoff races come down to the wire, follow our MLB predictions throughout the final weeks of the regular season.
