Updated September 11, 2026
The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays open a three-game series on Friday, September 11, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field. Miguel Ullola (0-0, 3.86 ERA) will serve as the opener for Houston, while Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.88 ERA) gets the start for Tampa Bay.
Both teams come into the weekend with three-game leads in their divisions, so there's plenty at stake as the regular season winds down. The Rays can become the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff spot with a win Friday night, while an impressive showing this weekend could give the Astros some more breathing room in the AL West.
Let's get into our Astros vs Rays prediction and where we see the best value in Friday night's opener.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I like the under here, even after Houston got to Drew Rasmussen the last time these teams met. Rasmussen has been very good for most of the season, and now he gets the Astros at home with their offense struggling lately. Houston has been below league average in runs scored per game over the last 30 days, while Miguel Ullola has looked sharp in limited action for the Astros. I expect a much better outing from Rasmussen this time around and a relatively low-scoring game overall.”
Under 7.5 Total Runs Is Priced Around 49¢
Polymarket currently has under 7.5 priced around 49¢, while our model gives it a 54% chance of hitting. That creates a 5% edge at the current price, with the model projecting Tampa Bay to win 4-3 and the teams to combine for seven runs.
Both Pitchers Set Up Well for Friday Night
Rasmussen will be looking for a better result after Houston tagged him for five earned runs across five innings in their previous meeting, including two home runs. Back at Tropicana Field, he gets an Astros offense that has struggled over the last 30 days, averaging just 4.04 runs per game while hitting .226 with a .668 OPS. Houston is using Miguel Ullola as its opener, but he's been sharp in limited MLB action. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs across seven innings for a 3.86 ERA, with a 0.86 WHIP, 10 strikeouts and only one walk. If Ullola can give Houston another clean start before turning things over to the bullpen, that should give the under a good chance to stay on track.
Recommended Prediction:
Under 7.5 Total Runs
Current Market Price:
49¢
Model Win Probability:
54%
Market-Implied Probability:
49%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
53¢
Model Trade Confidence:
64/100
After a rough July that saw him post a 6.05 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, Drew Rasmussen has really turned things around. Those numbers look even more out of place compared to his 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP for the season.
The Rays ace has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts, and Tampa Bay is a perfect 9-0 in his starts since the All-Star break. Rasmussen has also posted an impressive 5.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch.
Houston did get to him for five runs in their previous meeting, but the Astros haven't been hitting particularly well lately, posting a below-average 90 wRC+ as a team over the last 30 days. Given Rasmussen's recent form, I'm expecting a much better showing at home Friday night.
There is some reason to be skeptical about taking the under in a matchup between two division leaders. Both teams have hit right-handed pitching well this season, and that's exactly what they'll see Friday night.
Tampa Bay leads the MLB with a .265 average against righties while posting a .756 OPS and 112 wRC+. The Rays have also struck out just 18.6% of the time in those matchups, the lowest rate in baseball. Houston hasn't been quite as good, but its .728 OPS and 104 wRC+ against righties still rank comfortably in the top half of the MLB.
The good news for our under prediction is that neither lineup has been quite as dangerous lately. Houston has a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while Tampa Bay is right around league average at 99. So while the season-long splits are a little concerning, both offenses have cooled off heading into Friday night.
Both teams enter Friday with three-game division leads. Tampa Bay is 87-59 and currently holds the best record in the American League, ahead of the Yankees, putting the Rays in position for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs if they hold onto the AL East.
The situation is a little more precarious for Houston. At 75-72, the Astros could still catch the White Sox for the No. 2 seed and earn a first-round bye themselves.
But Houston also has very little room for a late-season collapse. The Astros are three games ahead of Texas and six ahead of Seattle in the AL West, and if they lose that division lead, they're currently just one game ahead of Cleveland for the final AL Wild Card spot. That means a bad finish could potentially leave Houston on the outside looking in and out of the playoffs altogether.
Follow our MLB predictions as the playoff races come down to the final few weeks.
