Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Game 1 Prediction - 9/30/2025
Updated September 30, 2025
Updated September 30, 2025
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will meet in Game 1 of their 2025 AL Wild Card series on Tuesday night. These AL East rivals will write another chapter in their storied postseason history with one another here and we get a spectacular pitching matchup in their series opener. Before both teams send their aces to the hill for this contest, keep reading to get my Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 prediction.
This feels like the marquee pitching matchup of the Wild Card round. New York will go with Max Fried to start this series opener. Fried piled up 19 wins this season with a 2.86 ERA and 189 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. He’s been especially sharp down the stretch, including a dominant 13-strikeout performance against the Orioles in late September.
Garrett Crochet will get the start for Boston in Game 1. Crochet has a 2.59 ERA in 2025 and has been consistently feasting on the Yankees. He posted 39 strikeouts in 27.1 innings against New York this year. Crochet matches up well with New York’s lefty-heavy lineup. Crochet has to deliver here, or the Sox will be in an 0-1 hole without their ace to lean on for the rest of this series.
New York enters the postseason on a strong run, having gone 31-12 since August 11. That is the best record over that stretch in MLB. The Yankees won eight games in a row to end the regular season and will try to carry that momentum into the playoffs. Boston won two out of three games over the Detroit Tigers in their final series of the regular season.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Garrett Crochet | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
Max Fried | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Aaron Judge | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Score Projection: Red Sox 4 — Yankees 3
Win Probability: Red Sox 55%, Yankees 45%
The Yankees are playing some of the best baseball in the league going into the playoffs. But Boston should be able to neutralize the offense of the Yankees with Garrett Crochet on the hill tonight. I will take the Red Sox to win this game as a slight underdog, as Aaron Judge's struggles in the playoffs could very well return against one of the best arms in baseball right now.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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