NBA
New York enters with the stronger recent defensive form, holding opponents to 105.2 points per game and posting a 1.003 defensive efficiency over its last three games. Its offense has also stayed steady enough at 110.0 points per game, with 36.6% shooting from deep and 48.2 rebounds per game. Milwaukee has been much shakier, allowing 122.1 points per game, shooting 43.4% from the field, and operating at just 109.7 points per game on offense. The Bucks have struggled on both ends, with a 25th-ranked offensive efficiency and a 28th-ranked defensive efficiency, which makes it harder to see them forcing a fast scoring game in this spot.
New York is the sharper side at home because its defense has been far more reliable, and Milwaukee’s recent results point to continued scoring trouble. With the Knicks allowing just 105.2 points per game and the Bucks giving up 122.1, the game projects more slowly than the market price suggests. My projection is New York 114, Milwaukee 106, which supports an under result and a home win driven by defense and efficiency.
